Soft wheat prices fell by €7.5/t on Euronext between November 6 and 13, as well as on the CBOT in Chicago, after several consecutive sessions of decline.
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Sowing is progressing in the United States but in slightly worse conditions than last year. In France, plantings are following the same pace as last year. World wheat production was revised slightly upwards by the USDA in its monthly report on global supply and demand. As for the European Union, cumulative exports of soft wheat are down compared to last year. Franco-Algerian tensions and the exclusion of France from the latest calls for tenders from the Algerian Office for Cereals and Wheat are not unrelated. FranceAgriMer has also revised downwards its forecast for exports of soft wheat to third countries, due to a lack of an Algerian outlet. Finally, in the United Kingdom, AHDB analysts estimate the protein level of wheat to be lower than that observed last year.
The decline in the futures market was carried over to the French physical market, and stimulated business. These, however, remain limited by supply, while farmers are busy with sowing and are in no hurry to collect and market. In feed wheat, purchases were made by feed manufacturers in Belgium and Holland from November to March. In Brittany, buying interest is present on the close, while on the hinterland of La Pallice, food manufacturers are buying at a discount of €5/t compared to the port on the close. In the main ports, a few deals were concluded with the rise in premiums. The milling industry has little purchasing presence, with the exception of the South-West zone where a small flow of business is noted.
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Technical unemployment in port grain terminals
In the Seine basin, river freight costs did not change between November 6 and 13. Nothing new to report compared to last week. There are numerous quality problems with the goods transported, whether in terms of weevil, ergot, protein content and specific weight. Export activity remains sluggish. So much so that we are still recording periods of technical unemployment among certain shippers at the ports of Rouen and Dunkirk. Some storage organizations in their hinterlands have even announced that they will not load any grain from November 15, a month before the usual end-of-year break for confectioners.
On the Rhine, levels are falling and the first additional freight costs linked to low water are being charged.
Adèle d’Humières and Karine Floquet
But
Seller's market in the North and dynamic in the South thanks to demand from Southern Europe
Corn prices also gave way on Euronext, losing €5/t this week. Corn prices were also falling in Chicago. The harvest is almost finished in the United States. The USDA revised global production upwards, but the increase applied to consumption was stronger, which led to a downward correction in global stocks. Demand is dynamic for American origins. The French harvest was estimated by Agreste to be up 10% compared to the five-year average, although with contrasting yields depending on the region. Yields could be good or even very good for corn in the Grand Est. In Lorraine, they could reach 80-85 tonnes/ha and be close to records in Alsace. Be careful, however, of mycotoxins at the end of the harvest. French exports have been noted by FranceAgriMer. In the southern half of the territory, demand is dynamic from Spain and Italy and the market is rather buyer-oriented, including for French food manufacturers. Conversely, the market is selling in the northern half of the country, with few buyers and activity in January-March. Note that French sorghum production will ultimately be less than expected, despite the increase in surface areas. Yields are disappointing, with a 20 to 30% drop compared to last year, and production should get closer to the five-year average.
Feed barley
Sluggish demand for feed barley
Feed barley is rarely used in formulations and the needs of food manufacturers are already covered. At the port, the market is very calm. Only a few hedging and adjustment operations occur in the South of France, with a little Italian demand for the South-East.
Malting barley
Contrasted price developments
Malting barley prices on the French physical market lost ground between November 6 and 13 for the 2024 harvest but gained ground for the 2025 harvest, for all varieties (winter and spring) combined. Shoppers returned to shopping this week. But we must keep in mind that the course levels in France are higher than those currently practiced in Germany, Denmark and Sweden.
Durum wheat
Rare offer of durum wheat
Offers are rare for durum wheat, with the corn harvest and winter cereal sowing mobilizing most sellers. However, demand is present in Spain, Italy and the domestic market. Prices increased significantly in Rouen between November 6 and 13, and more moderately from the Center, in the South-West and in Port-La-Nouvelle.
The editorial staff
To watch
Soft wheat
Do operators respect the minimum prices recommended by the authorities?
Pace and quality of sowing in countries of the northern hemisphere.
Dynamics of European exports, France-Algeria relations?
Orgy
Continued weakness in French and EU exports.
Progress of sowing in France and the countries of the northern hemisphere.
Growing conditions in Australia.
But
European request for French origins.
End of corn harvests in France and the United States.
Corn yields and volumes in France?
Pace of US exports.
Adèle d'Humières
