The impact of Donald Trump’s victory in the American presidential elections on the energy markets is particularly felt on liquefied natural gas (LNG) contracts for the year 2025. The premiums for Cal-2025 contracts for natural gas reference TTF in Europe reached their highest level of the year, at 7.65 EUR/MWh on November 11, 2024, before falling slightly to 7.22 EUR/MWh on November 12. This surge in 2025 contract premiums relative to 2026 is the result of several factors, including uncertainty related to Trump’s future policies, concerns over security of supply, and delays in gas liquefaction projects. natural gas.
Factors influencing the increase in premiums
The rise in premiums can be explained by several key factors. First, the market anticipates strong demand in the short term, driven by geopolitical uncertainties, including the issue of US tariffs, particularly to China, and possible protectionist policies of the Trump administration. These uncertainties weigh on market stability, and market participants seek to protect themselves against increased volatility, thereby increasing premiums for 2025 contracts.
Second, delays in major liquefaction projects like the Golden Pass project in the United States, originally planned for 2024 but now delayed to 2025 or even 2026, are contributing to continued tensions on LNG supply in 2025. Analysts estimate that these delays may result in an increase in prices for this contract period.
Uncertainty linked to gas transit via Ukraine
One of the additional elements of uncertainty affecting the market is the situation of gas transit via Ukraine, which could see its contract expire at the end of 2024. Speculation on a new transit agreement between Ukraine and Azerbaijan further fuel uncertainty over gas supply. This lack of clarity on the future of gas flows between these countries has a direct influence on the prices of future contracts.
At the same time, the expansion of liquefaction capacities in Qatar, with the construction of new liquefaction units in the QatarEnergy LNG project in Ras Laffan, planned for commercial commissioning in 2026, should ultimately alleviate the tense situation in 2026. But expectations for LNG demand, particularly from countries like Brazil and Egypt, keep pressure on prices high for 2025.
The price trend in 2025
The rise in premiums for 2025 also reflects a significant demand forecast, with countries such as Brazil and Egypt actively seeking to source from the international LNG market. These nations, facing declines in their hydropower reserves and declining natural gas production, find themselves in the position of having to purchase more LNG, contributing to upward pressure on 2025 contract prices.
