Difficult days ahead for oil producers? In any case, this is the message hammered out by the International Energy Agency (IEA) in its monthly report, published this Thursday. The international organization explains in particular that global oil demand is expected to increase by 920,000 barrels per day this year, to reach 102.8 million barrels per day (mb/d), an upward revision of 60,000 barrels per day. compared to the October estimate. This adjustment is explained “ largely thanks to larger-than-expected OECD diesel deliveries in the third quarter », according to the IEA, which reviews its forecasts monthly depending on the economic situation.
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But for 2025, the estimate of growth in black gold consumption is “ essentially unchanged » to less than one million barrels per day (990,000), which would bring daily global consumption to 103.8 million barrels. The rate of growth in demand less than 1 mb/d for these years 2024/2025 “ marks a significant slowdown from the 2 mb/d increase in 2023 », Specified the IEA which warned that the market could find itself in a situation of excess supply.
Chinese slowdown
The expected level of consumption of black gold “ once again reflects below-normal underlying global economic conditions », the end of the post-Covid-19 demand catch-up while “ rapid deployment (of electric vehicles) also tempers growth in oil consumption “, explained the IEA.
In recent weeks, oil prices have remained at relatively low levels. Around 2 p.m. in Paris, a barrel of Brent from the North Sea climbed 0.90%, to $72.68. In question: “Markets fear a slowdown in China's growth, which would stop increasing its crude oil needs, which would lower prices”explained to The Tribuneat the beginning of October, Olivier Gantois, president of Ufip Énergies et Mobilités.
As a reminder, China is in the grip of an unprecedented crisis in its vast real estate sector, sluggish confidence among households and businesses, which is penalizing consumption, while geopolitical tensions with Washington and the European Union threaten its foreign trade. Result, “fears of a slowdown in China are almost as great as fears of a conflagration in the Middle East”according to the expert.
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Another downward factor: Saudi Arabia, which has excess capacity estimated at 3 million barrels per day, and which has no interest in prices increasing too quickly, pointed out for its part, still at The TribuneThierry Bros, energy expert and professor at Sciences Po. “What OPEC is aiming for (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, editor’s note), it is a price of around 80 to 90 dollars per barrel: above 90, this would allow the energy transition to take place more quickly and below 80, it does not balance their accounts”he explained.
OPEC+ curbs its production
In this bearish context, the OPEC+ alliance of oil producers decided on November 3 to postpone by one month a planned increase in production, which would not occur before January. It will hold its meeting on December 1 to examine the market outlook and its production plans for 2025. But according to IEA estimates, even if the production cuts established by OPEC+ to support prices, remained in effect. place, ” global supply will exceed demand by more than 1 million barrels per day next year ».
« Global oil supply is increasing at a steady pace », indicated the IEA, referring to the re-election of Donald Trump, favorable to oil expansion. “ Following the American elections », the IEA therefore expects the United States to be the main contributor to the increase in supply from non-OPEC+ countries, estimated at 1.5 mb/d in 2024/25 .
(With AFP)
