© Jacqueline Macou/Pixabay
– When you buy off plan, the price of your home takes into account land costs, construction standards and materials.
Who says drop in housing sales says drop in prices, by virtue of the law of supply and demand. But what is true for old real estate is not true for new. While prices in existing properties have fallen by 7% to 8% over the last two years, due to high interest rates which make the purchase plans of many households difficult to finance, «prices for new buildings are not changing»notes Pascal Boulanger, president of the Federation of Real Estate Developers (FPI), during an economic update this Thursday, November 14. However, sales of new homes fell further in the third quarter of 2024, by 2.5%, year-on-year.
A development which, however, reflects a slowdown in the fall in sales. This slowdown can be attributed to a 4.3% rebound in sales to individuals, while so-called block sales, to institutional investors and social landlords, fell by almost 13%, due to the end of the buyout programs carried out by CDC Habitat and Action Logement to support the activity of developers. But Pascal Boulanger has no illusions about sales to individuals, whose rebound is driven by sales to rental investorsup 5%, compared to +3.9% for those with owner-occupiers.
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Fairly incompressible sales prices for new properties
The boss of the FPI certainly sees these developments as the consequence of the fall in mortgage rates, which gives households more room for financial maneuver. But he also sees a windfall effect linked to the disappearance, on December 31, 2024, of the Pinel rental investment scheme, which allows its beneficiaries to reduce their income tax if they buy new housing to rent it at a moderate rent for several years. “Rental investors say it’s now or never to buy in Pinel,” analyzes Pascal Boulanger.
At 4,442 and 7,672 units respectively, housing sales to individual investors and owner-occupiers remain “extremely weak”underlines the FPI. Under these conditions, why are prices stagnating, at the high level of 5,000 euros per square meter on average ? “Sales prices in new buildings are not governed by the law of supply and demand as in old buildings. These are technical prices, with developers being obliged to pass on to their clients the costs of land (which remains scarce, therefore expensive), new construction standards and materials.explains Pascal Boulanger.
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Prices falling by more than 10% in certain urban areas
In reality, after two years of the real estate crisis, new property prices are still falling a little. But not everywhere! According to FPI data, the average price per square meter stagnated in Ile-de-France in the third quarter, over a year, but it decreased by 3.1% in the regions. Some urban areas even have much higher falls, Tours, Le Havre, Dijon, Clermont-Ferrand, Laval and Montpellier. Conversely, prices are increasing very sharply in Reims (25.4%), Aix-en-Provence (10.3%), Nice (8.2%) and Annecy (6.2%).
“Yes, but can we really draw reliable statistics in cities where only one or two programs have been marketed recently?”puts Pascal Boulanger into perspective. Probably not, but even if there is only one new housing program under construction in a city that interests you, with price down 10%you would be wrong to deprive yourself!
