The United States has always had interests in Africa; this new election is also being played out on this continent.
During his first term, Donald Trump showed great contempt for African subjects, going so far as to arouse indignation by speaking of “shithole countries”. What will happen and what will be the position of the other competitors present in Africa?
Economic relations
These United States/Africa relations are governed by an agreement signed in the year 2000, the AGOA (African Growth Opportunity Act), which allows African countries to export many products to the United States without customs duties. Conditions must be respected, such as political pluralism, respect for human rights, and the fight against corruption.
South Africa, the largest non-oil exporter to the United States, is already preparing for the tariff hike promised by Trump. AGOA could therefore be threatened, so that trade is concentrated on certain hand-picked countries.
What will become of major infrastructure projectssuch as the ambitious “Lobito corridor”, a railway project aimed at linking Central Africa to Angola (and competing with China) to facilitate the export of copper and cobalt ores?
The United States is then a major provider of aid to Africa, with $4 billion planned for 2024. During his first term, D. Trump proposed reducing foreign aid, faithful to his isolationist principle ” America first,” but encountered resistance from Congress.
On the climate front, we remember, during Trump’s first term, the American withdrawal from the Paris agreement aimed at curbing global warming, which Trump describes as a “scam”. His return therefore arouses deep African apprehension.
On the security level
While American forces have long played a role in Africa in the fight against jihadism, Trump ordered the withdrawal from Somalia. Since then, the American army has also withdrawn from Niger, but discussions are said to be underway with other partners in order to recalibrate American aid. Since Trump is very critical of the billions of dollars spent on Ukraine, he could redirect these funds to the continent.
Africa is for Trump only a battlefield against the Russian and Chinese giants: the only reference to Africa in Trump’s campaign plan is the recognition of Somaliland. If many African leaders congratulated him on this second election, they are not fooled, like Kenyan President Raila Odinga, who assured that the continent had “other friends if Trump does not want to work with Africa”.
Among these friends, Russia received senior African officials in Sochi on November 10 and 11. If some, like Mali, still claim that Russia is not a colonial power, there are more and more skeptics. With $5 billion in arms delivered in 2024 and a growing interest in raw materials (bauxite, oil, diamonds), Africa looks more like a cyclical interest for Russia – linked to its standoff with the West – than a real long-term alliance.
Guillaume P.
Current n°182 – November 13, 2024
