Donald Trump will soon return to the White House and this concerns the Taiwanese authorities.
Taiwan is concerned about the sustainability of American support after the election of Donald Trump. The United States is historically the island's number 1 ally but the Republican caused confusion during the campaign over the future of this relationship if he was re-elected. Last July, to the question “Would you defend Taiwan against China?”, he replied:
“I think Taiwan should pay us for its defense. We are no different from an insurance company.”
Message well received by Taipei. According to the Financial Times, the authorities are about to buy a large quantity of military equipment from the United States, including a destroyer. According to a senior Taiwanese national security official, “informal discussions” are underway with the incoming administration.
A strategic interest
A certain excitement behind the scenes but Taiwan wants to be optimistic. When Donald Trump's victory was announced, the authorities quickly welcomed the opening of a “new chapter” in bilateral relations.
Despite the president-elect's recent statements, they cling to the fact that “the Trump administration was perhaps the one that supported Taiwan the most”, according to Marc Julienne, director of the Asia Center at Ifri.
The interest is strategic. Washington cannot afford to lose Taiwan. The island is a lock. If it fell into China's hands it would mean that Beijing would have access to all of Pacific Asia, thus finding itself at the gates of Japan, South Korea and American bases. Some even speak of a national security issue.
Musk, troublemaker?
But since Trump's first term, a lot has changed. Elon Musk, “friend” of Beijing, entered the entourage of the 47th American president. The largest Tesla factory in the world is in Shanghai. It provides half of the brand's global deliveries.
“Comrade Musk,” as some people call him there, received honors befitting a minister during his latest visit. The billionaire's objective is to preserve his interests at all costs. To do this, he willingly goes in the direction of Beijing. In 2023, he created a lively controversy by declaring:
“Taiwan is a bit like Hawaii is to the United States, an integral part of China.”
“We don’t know if Elon Musk’s free will is for sale, but Taiwan is not for sale,” the Taiwanese autosorts immediately reacted. The Minister of Foreign Affairs had in passing offered a tackle: “I hope that Elon Musk can also ask the Communist Party to allow its people to have access to X”. The social network is in fact banned in China.
This hazardous outing by Elon Musk on Taiwan was not the first. In 2022, he suggested that the independent island could be integrated into the Middle Kingdom in the form of a “special administrative zone”.
Caroline Loyer: Return of Trump, uncertainty in Taiwan – 12/11
There is what the Tesla boss says about Taiwan and there is also what he does. According to revelations from the Wall Street Journal published last month, Elon Musk and Vladimir Putin have been in regular contact since 2022 and the Russian president has notably asked him not to activate Starlink over Taiwan. A “favor” granted to the Chinese president, the American newspaper tells us.
Accusations denied by both parties but what we remember is that Elon Musk is visibly interested in foreign policy. It remains to be seen whether it will weigh on that of Donald Trump.
