In October 2024, the food price index, calculated by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), increased by 2%, amounting to 127.4 points against 124, 9 in September 2024.
This increase, experts note, marks the highest level reached since April 2023 and concerns almost all food products, with the exception of meat.
The vegetable oil index saw the strongest growth, with a spectacular jump of 7.3%. This level, unprecedented for two years, results from the expected drop in palm harvests in South-East Asia, particularly in Indonesia and Malaysia, as well as in sunflower and rapeseed harvests, strategic crops for the oil industry. .
Dairy products also recorded an increase of 1.9%, supported by strong demand for butter and cheese despite a decrease in milk production in Europe. This trend highlights the impact of weather conditions and consumption dynamics on markets.
The sugar and cereal indices increased by 2.6% and 0.9% respectively.
The surge in sugar prices is attributed to unfavorable weather conditions in Brazil, the main producer, where drought is impacting sugar cane yields.
Cereals, for their part, are subject to climatic hazards in Russia, the United States and Europe, reinforcing pressure on world prices.
According to the FAO, global cereal production is expected to decline by 0.4% in 2024, to 2.85 billion tonnes. Despite this decline, this level remains close to historical records. In more detail, the corn harvest could fall by 1.7% to around 1.2 billion tonnes, while rice and wheat production are expected to increase slightly, reaching 538.9 million tonnes and 791 million tonnes respectively. .
Global grain stocks are expected around 889 million tonnes, although exports are expected to fall 3.9% to 485 million tonnes.
These data reflect the enduring tensions facing the global food market, under pressure from extreme weather conditions and ever-increasing demand.
Flora Musiswa
