The ex-president’s guilty verdict did not have the massive effect that some expected or hoped for, but its long-term impact will not be negligible.
Two weeks after the verdict, we have not observed a massive drop in voting intentions for Trump. At most, we see a slight shift in favor of Biden.
Some clues
This slowness is understandable. The vast majority of Americans have long-held opinions about Trump, and the verdict will do little to change their perceptions. Polls, however, indicate that a significant share of independent voters agree that he makes them more likely to oppose Trump.
With his anemic approval rating, Joe Biden benefits from seeing the election as a choice and not a referendum. His supporters also need a good reason to wake up from their torpor. The verdict reinforces both of these factors.
Increasingly, we hear anecdotes of voters who leaned for Trump but definitively reject the idea of voting for a criminal. These testimonials make good advertising clips and they could snowball.
For what?
This limited public reaction to the verdict is explainable. First, political polarization has led to a “calcification” of partisan choices, which have become more the expression of a quasi-tribal identity than a choice between candidates and programs.
This tribalism is reinforced by the informational echo chambers where most voters live, especially as mainstream media strives to balance negative coverage of Trump with accentuating negative coverage of his opponents.
Finally, several swing voters are little or poorly informed and some know nothing about Donald Trump’s legal tribulations. As the nebulous opinions of these voters solidify in the coming months, Trump’s criminal label will hurt him. This, obviously, to the extent that the Democrats manage to stick it to him and manage to avoid other damaging labels sticking to Biden.
Return to basics
Like athletes who must constantly be reminded of “the basics” to perform, political analysts benefit from returning to the foundations of their discipline to understand the present and anticipate the future.
In the case of American elections, as opinion on candidates is unlikely to change radically during the campaign, it is necessary to emphasize the contextual elements which will influence the vote.
At the forefront is the economy. Between now and November, the situation will have a good chance of favoring Biden. Prices are high, but they are stabilizing while employment and wage growth remain solid. This is why, despite the polls favorable to Trump, the renowned site FiveThirtyEight gives a slight lead to Biden in its first forecast for 2024.
Nor should we underestimate the effect of the verdict on the tone of the campaign between now and November. For Democrats, it’s a button they can press at will to drive Donald Trump out of control, which can only hurt him among more moderate voters. If you doubt that, take a look at his public outings since the verdict.
