(Taipei) The Taiwanese presidency “sent its congratulations” to Donald Trump on his victory, but according to several analysts, Taipei could now pay much more, literally and figuratively, for the support of the United States in the face of the threat of China.
Posted at 7:17 a.m.
Allison Jackson and Amber Wang
Agence France-Presse
Washington has long been Taipei's most important ally and the largest supplier of weapons to Taiwan, which needs them to defend against a possible Chinese attack.
Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te sent his “sincere congratulations” to Donald Trump on his victory on Wednesday on the social network X, saying he was convinced that ties between Taipei and Washington would remain a “cornerstone” of regional stability.
“The long-standing partnership between Taiwan and the United States, built on shared values and interests, will continue to serve as a cornerstone for regional stability and lead to greater prosperity for us all,” he said. added.
The Trump administration's policy toward Taiwan is “highly uncertain,” according to Amanda Hsiao of the International Crisis Group think tank.
“On the one hand, the Trump administration could condition continued American support for Taiwan on the fact that Taiwan pays more for its defense,” she told AFP.
“On the other hand, a Trump administration could decide to elevate relations between the United States and Taiwan to new heights in a way that significantly increases tensions with China,” she added.
China, which considers Taiwan as part of its territory and has not ruled out using force to place it under its control, has recently intensified its military pressure on the island.
“Strategic ambiguity”
Under President Xi Jinping, who has called Taiwan's “unification” with China “inevitable”, Beijing has increased military pressure on Taipei, regularly deploying fighter planes and warships around the island. .
CIA Director William Burns said last year that Xi Jinping had ordered his military to be ready by 2027 to invade Taiwan, which China considers part of its territory.
Mr. Xi himself recently asked his troops to strengthen their preparation for war.
The United States historically maintains a policy of “strategic ambiguity” regarding possible U.S. military intervention if Taiwan were attacked by China.
Over the past five decades, the United States has sold billions of dollars worth of military equipment and munitions to Taiwan, including F-16 fighter jets and warships.
Pressed to spend more on its own security, Taiwan has allocated a record $19 billion for its defense in 2024 and next year's defense budget is expected to hit a new high.
Taiwanese Defense Minister Wellington Koo told the press on Tuesday that Taiwan was “determined to permanently strengthen its self-defense capabilities” and that it was necessary to make this known to the winner of the American presidential election, whoever 'it be.
“Exchange currency”
If support for Taiwan has so far been a consensus between Democrats and Republicans, particularly in Congress, Donald Trump suggested during the electoral campaign that the United States would not commit to militarily defending this island in the event of a Chinese attack. .
He stirred up trouble by suggesting that Taiwan “should pay” his country for its defense and also accused it of “stealing” the United States' semiconductor industry.
If Donald Trump engages in a trade war with China, Taiwan could find itself stuck in the middle, said Liu Jia-wei, a professor at the department of public administration and policy at National Taipei University.
“Taiwan will be discussed as a bargaining chip on behalf of more American interests,” she continues.
Diplomatically, Donald Trump's disdain for multilateralism could further isolate Taiwan on the international stage.
Only 12 countries, including the Vatican, fully recognize Taiwan. China maintains no diplomatic relations with any country recognizing Taipei.
For Rorry Daniels, executive director of the Asia Society Policy Institute, Trump is “unlikely to defend Taiwan's participation in international institutions because he generally does not see” their value.
