HASith 31.5% of the votes cast, Jordan Bardella gives his party its best score in the European elections, 8 points higher than that of 2019. This is the third time that the National Rally (RN) has ahead of the lists of the majority in place, but the gap has never been so big, going from 4 points in 2014 and 1 point in 2019 to almost 17 this year. And it has never come out on top in all the regions and in so many municipalities. This feat is part of a European dynamic of populist, nationalist and xenophobic rights in Europe, bracing against globalization, and confirms the success of the normalization strategy led by Marine Le Pen.
Also read the story | Article reserved for our subscribers The National Rally, from euphoria to amazement after its good score in the European elections and the announcement of a dissolution
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Since 2011, distancing himself from his father’s anti-Semitic line, presenting his party as the bulwark of secularism and democracy against the Islamist threat, and presenting itself as a “quasi-feminist”, she managed to transform her image. In 2023, those surveyed seeing the RN as a danger for democracy were only 41% compared to 58% in 2017. Nearly one in two consider that the RN has become more moderate in recent years, and two in three that the RN could one day come to power.
This strategy allowed it to progress in the categories most reluctant towards it. Her father won 4% of the votes in 2007 in the Jewish electorate, she won triple that in 2012, a symbolic victory if ever there was one for a party whose founder still considers the gas chambers as “a point of detail”.
Since the 2015 regional elections, the National Front has been seen as gay friendly, and scores above average among men living as a couple. Since 2012, in each presidential election, women who are repelled by Jean-Marie Le Pen’s sexism and extremism are as numerous as men to vote for his daughter, of equal age, diploma, religious practice and socio-economic status. A decisive advantage, since women represent 53% of the registered electorate. With his smooth and pleasant style, Jordan Bardella brings the final touch to this process of demonization and reaps the benefits, broadening the RN’s audience among the 60-70 year olds and the middle and upper classes hitherto out of reach.
Anti-Macron referendum
He also had a lot of help from his opponents. Playing on the growing aversion aroused by the President of the Republic and his policies, he made the European elections an anti-Macron referendum. The motivation for voting most often put forward by its electorate on the eve of the election is to “to demonstrate opposition to the President of the Republic and the government” (68% compared to 38% on average, according to an Ipsos survey in May).
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