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– “I will resolve the conflict in 24 hours,” promised the now 47th President of the United States, Donald Trump, without giving further details on how he intended to proceed.
«I will resolve the dispute within 24 hours», promised the now 47th President of the United States, Donald Trump, regarding the war in Ukraine, without giving further details on how he intended to proceed. If the rhetoric seems simplistic and potentially unrealistic, what would it really be? Above all, it is essential to remember that there is a real difference between what Trump says as a candidate and what he might actually do as president. “The responsibility of a president is not the same as that of a candidate. Remarks are often moderate once in power, despite the hard-hitting rhetoric of the campaign», underlines Emmanuel Dupuy, president of the Institute Foresight and Security in Europe (IPSE).
However, this is Donald Trump, whose diplomacy is characterized by often radical and sometimes summary actions, in a president who believes in rapid and spectacular solutions. All of this is reminiscent of his attempts at direct diplomacy with leaders such as Kim Jong-un, where he believed that a symbolic meeting could be enough to transform geopolitical dynamics. This approach led to mixed results, and Emmanuel Dupuy anticipates a “pchit» similar with Russia, suggesting that the latter will remain a strategic adversary of the United States in any case and that a cordial relationship with Moscow cannot be built “in 24 hours”…
A peace plan in Ukraine with vague contours
The details of Donald Trump's peace plan for Ukraine, although rarely explained, were outlined by his future vice president, JD Vance. This would involve imposing a ceasefire on current positions and establishing a “demilitarized zone» in Ukraine. This solution could anchor a “frozen conflict», ensuring Russia lasting control over nearly 18% of Ukrainian territory, including Crimea. Such an initiative could satisfy Moscow while putting Ukraine in a weak position.
War in Ukraine: are we witnessing a turning point in Western support for kyiv?
Emmanuel Dupuy qualifies the idea of a total turnaround in American policy. “There is absolutely no question of letting go of Ukraine overnight“, he says. Although developments in bilateral relations are likely, Donald Trump could essentially seek to challenge the current leadership of Volodymyr Zelensky. “Americans may explore alternatives to Zelensky», notes Emmanuel Dupuy, mentioning the possible return of Petro Poroshenko, former Ukrainian president, considered more politically reconcilable with Trump's liberal ideas.
Economic and military issues
In this regard, Trump's posture, focused on patriotism and isolationism, could well come into contradiction with the interests of the American defense industry. “Trump should not radically differ from what American industry demands: continue selling weapons», Explains the specialist. Military aid to Ukraine represents a boon to the U.S. military-industrial complex, providing a testing ground for its weapons and boosting its export capacity.
This economic reality makes a complete withdrawal of the United States from the Ukrainian scene unlikely. It would not be so much a matter of suspending arms deliveries, but more likely of redefining relations, and considering a potential gradual reduction in budgetary envelopes. “The 61 billion euros voted for last summer will not be called into question, the question of the amount of aid will arise above all during the next budgetary decisions in Congress next summer.», specifies Emmanuel Dupuy.
The impact on a weakened Europe
The arrival of a Trump administration revising support for Ukraine could have significant repercussions in Europe. European allies, already under pressure from increasing their own war effort, could see the materialization of an Eastern Europe vulnerable to a bolder Russia. “Difficult times for Ukraine. It's not just the loss of US support, it's also the cascading effect on paralyzed Europeans», warns Joseph Henrotin, the editor-in-chief of the defense and strategy review DSI, on X, this Wednesday morning. If he disconnects American aid to Ukraine, if he pushes Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to negotiate from a position of weakness with Moscow, and all of Europe will be affected and weakened.
