Early elections: is Emmanuel Macron playing with his country?

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French President Emmanuel Macron triggered a political earthquake by announcing on Sunday that he was dissolving the National Assembly and calling early legislative elections. A risky decision which could prove fatal for the presidential camp.

This announcement came shortly after the National Rally (RN), a far-right party, inflicted a crushing defeat on the French president’s Renaissance party in the European legislative elections, winning both more votes.

French voters will therefore have to return to the polls, this time to elect 577 deputies, on June 30 and July 7.

Why now ?

On Sunday evening, Emmanuel Macron said he was pushed to dissolve the assembly and call quick elections because he could not “pretend like nothing happened“.

The RN obtained 31.4% in the European elections, while its centrist coalition came far behind with 14.6%.

This is the second major electoral setback for the head of state, who lost his absolute majority in parliament a few weeks after being re-elected for a second term in 2022, the RN having obtained the best score in its history and being became the main opposition party with 88 seats.

Since then, Macron and his government have had to negotiate support for bills on a case-by-case basis and have very often had to resort to article 49.3 allowing the adoption of a law without going through a vote in parliament.

“France needs a clear majority to act in serenity and harmony” he said in a televised address broadcast shortly after the results were published.

“The president had no choice but to acknowledge that his own party had just suffered a significant defeat. He had to seize the opportunity to regain control of history“, has explained Alberto Alemannoprofessor of European law at HEC Paris.

“And the only way to regain control of this story is to become this story yourself“, he added.

By calling quick elections, Emmanuel Macron is not giving opposition parties much time to organize.

This decision was criticized by some of the president’s opponents, such as the president of the Île-de-France region, Valérie Pécresse, whose traditional right-wing party, Les Républicains (LR), has just suffered a massive defeat in the European elections, with a score of only 7.3%.

“Dissolving without giving anyone time to organize or without any campaign is playing Russian roulette with the destiny of the country” she said on X, formerly Twitter.

Another possibility is that early elections force the right-wing party LR to form a coalition with the presidential camp in order to block the rise of the far right – something the Republicans had previously refused to do.

Simon Hix, chair of comparative politics at the European University Institute, cast doubt on this scenario on X, writing: “What is he waiting for, that all the other parties, with the exception of the RN, join a coalition to “save the Republic“?

“I seriously doubt this would be possible in just three weeks“, he added.

A more Machiavellian tactic mentioned by political experts is that Macron wants the far right to take power and become unpopular before the 2027 presidential election.

Although he cannot run again, the head of state wants to ensure the survival of his political party at national and European level, according to Mr. Alemanno.

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“Macron has very little to lose and a lot to gain by creating the conditions for the far right to win the national elections in France and then try to govern the country by showing certain limits and possible failures. This could allow Mr Macron’s party to regain control of the next presidential cycle“, said the professor of European law.

The French president appears to be banking on the supposed fear of the far right among certain parts of the French electorate.

“The presidential majority is trying to play this card to put everyone against the far right. I’m not sure it will work this time. I do not think that the presidential majority is strong enough to provoke such a unifying reaction in order to protect the system against the National Rally” said Mr. Alemanno.

But for Mujtaba Rahman, managing director for Europe at Eurasia, this strategy could pay off. He has explained on that the good score of the RN in the EU “will not necessarily result in a majority in a national election“, partly because turnout is lower for European elections than for national elections.

What will happen if Emmanuel Macron’s party loses the early elections?

If the RN, or another party, obtains a majority in parliament, the president will be forced to appoint a person from his ranks as prime minister, who will then choose the ministers in his cabinet. This is what the French call “cohabitation”.

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If Jordan Bardella, the 28-year-old leader of the RN, becomes prime minister, the sharp divisions could have a significant impact on national policy issues.

The last time cohabitation took place was in 1997, when center-right President Jacques Chirac dissolved parliament thinking he would get a stronger majority, but instead lost against all expectations facing a left-wing coalition led by the Socialist Party.

Lionel Jospin was appointed Prime Minister and led the government until 2002.

For Mr. Rahman, the implications of Renaissance-RN cohabitation for France and the EU “would be deep“, notably because”there have already been three cohabitations between presidents and governments of different political beliefs – but none between politicians as ideologically opposed as Macron and Le Pen“.

Macron is a strong supporter of the EU while the RN is eurosceptic.

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Paradoxically, European elections have never had such an impact on French national politics.

Mr Alemanno also believes that the upcoming snap elections in France will profoundly affect politics at the EU level.

“I think Mr Bardella will be too distracted by domestic politics to play a role in the EU, for example in choosing high-level appointments“, did he declare.

“Will we be able to see France leading the way? The Liberals are not doing very well. It is therefore certain that this dynamic will weaken France’s voice around the table..”