“I will end every international crisis that the current administration has created, including the horrible war with Russia and Ukraine, which would never have happened if I were president.” This is what Donald Trump declared in July during his acceptance speech for the Republican Party nomination for the American presidential election. The billionaire then portrayed himself as a leader of international stature, capable of putting an end to conflicts in the world “with a phone call”.
Almost four months later, here he is re-elected, Wednesday November 6, President of the United States. What can we expect from its management of the main geopolitical crises, from Ukraine to the Middle East, including NATO and Taiwan? Point by point, franceinfo looks back on the international results of its first mandate and its promises for the second.
Ukraine: fear of major concessions to Vladimir Putin
Donald Trump’s victory could have dramatic effects for kyiv, which is still fighting against the invasion launched by Moscow. The former Republican president has constantly criticized the military and financial support provided to Ukraine by Joe Biden, worth nearly 85 billion euros since February 24, 2022 according to the Kiel Institute, or to display his admiration for the iron fist of Vladimir Putin. He has repeatedly claimed that he would be able to put an end to the Russian invasion “in less than 24 hours”without ever specifying how he intended to go about it.
His running mate, JD Vance, partly took care of this in September. The future vice-president of the United States spoke in a podcast posted on YouTube, the “Shawn Ryan Show”, the creation of a “demilitarized zone” on Ukrainian territory along the front line, which would be “strongly fortified so that the Russians do not invade the country again”according to extracts cited by Le Figaro. In other words, leave control to Russia of the territories it has already conquered, while the proposed negotiations take place.
The idea goes against the demands of Ukraine, which demanded to be able to retake its territory before any negotiations so as not to end up in a position of weakness. Russia, on the contrary, would see one of its demands partly satisfied: the annexation of four regions in eastern and southern Ukraine (Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhia and Kherson).
According to JD Vance, Donald Trump’s plan would also involve banning Ukraine’s entry into NATO or other “allied institutions”another demand from Vladimir Putin. In addition, a suspension or total cessation of American aid, the most substantial since the start of the conflict, would leave Ukraine even more heavily overwhelmed by Russian firepower.
Even if Moscow were to prolong the war, or even overwhelm Ukraine, there is no question of imagining sending American personnel there, according to JD Vance. “How many American lives would this cost? If the answer is greater than zero, then I’m stepping down, I’m tired of losing American lives by being the world’s policeman,” he insists.
Volodymyr Zelensky nevertheless addressed his “Congratulations” to Donald Trump on X. “I appreciate President Trump’s commitment to the ‘peace through strength’ approach to world affairs. This is exactly the principle that can practically bring a just peace closer to Ukraine. I hope we do so. Let’s implement it together.”adds the Ukrainian president, who does not fail to emphasize the “strong transpartisan support for Ukraine in the United States” and kyiv’s defense investments.
As in many international issues, it is above all uncertainty that dominates. “With a President Trump, we would certainly face crisis or lack of political will for a while”anticipated Tuesday Bohdan Yaremenko, former diplomat in the United States and deputy of the Ukrainian presidential party Servant of the People, quoted in The World. But despite its “fairly contradictory statements”, “the positive side is that we have seen that President Trump is quite capable of changing his mind under pressure from his advisors, under pressure from public opinion”
However, Moscow does not appear interested in negotiations. Russia will endeavor to“achieve all set goals” in Ukraine after Donald Trump’s victory, Moscow said on Wednesday. “Our conditions remain unchanged and are well known in Washington”continued the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
Middle East: the pursuit of “total” support for Israel
In the Oval Office, the Middle East will also be a burning issue for Donald Trump. While Washington has been Israel’s best ally since the start of the war, this is demonstrated in particular by the successive envelopes of military aidthe Republican promised his “full support” to the Jewish state after the October 7 attacks. From franceinfothe American political scientist Hans Noel estimated, before the results of the election, that there would be no “no major policy change”. However, on the Palestinian cause, “Donald Trump will not seek guarantees [pour la protection des civils] or to encourage a ceasefire”, contrary to the line held until then by Joe Biden.
During his first term, the billionaire increased his actions in favor of Israel. He further recognized Jerusalem as capital and moved the American embassy in Tel Aviv in the thrice holy city. Donald Trump is also at the origin of the Abraham Accords, which ratify a normalization of relations between Israel and several Arab countries. Above all, in 2019, he recognized the sovereignty of the Hebrew State in the occupied Syrian Golan Heights. All this liability makes you fear”policies in relation to colonization, in relation to Israel’s impunity, which will be accelerated or reinforced”explains Ines Abdel Razek, advocacy director of the Palestinian Institute for Public Diplomacy, interviewed a few days ago by franceinfo.
Since the announcement of his re-election, enthusiastic messages have been coming from the Israeli side. “Congratulations on the greatest comeback in history,” wrote the Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, in a press release. “I look forward to working with you to strengthen the strong bond between our people, to build a future of peace and security in the region and to defend our shared values”President Isaac Herzog shared on X.
The President of the Palestinian Authority, Mahmoud Abbas, also congratulated Donald Trump, saying “convinced that the United States will support legitimate aspirations” Palestinians. In a statement, he expressed “his aspiration to work with President Trump for peace and security in the region, emphasizing the Palestinian people’s commitment to freedom, self-determination and state sovereignty, in accordance with international law”. As for Hamas, the Islamist movement has declared that its position towards Donald Trump “will depend” of its policy towards the Palestinians.
NATO: the fear of withdrawal
Considering Donald Trump’s recent speeches on the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), his victory is more synonymous with concern than rejoicing for Europe. The Republican is not an “Atlanticist” like Joe Biden. He regularly criticizes his North Atlantic Treaty Organization allies for not sufficiently funding the institution or their own security. In February, during a meeting in South Carolina, he notably threatened to no longer guarantee the protection of NATO countries facing Russia, recounting a discussion he allegedly had with the leader of a member state of the Atlantic Alliance.
“One of the presidents of a big country stood up and said, ‘Well, sir, if we don’t pay and we’re attacked by Russia, will you protect us?’ said the billionaire. The person concerned would have replied: “No, I won’t protect you. In fact, I will encourage them to do what they want. You have to pay your bills.” Concretely, the American government devotes nearly 3.5% of its GDP to its defensewhen other European countries do not reach the required 2%.
At the time, the Republican’s position greatly worried Jens Stoltenberg, still at the helm of NATO. “Any suggestion that Allies will not defend each other undermines the security of us all,” he had warned. The new Secretary General of the Alliance, Mark Rutte, was quick to congratulate Donald Trump on Wednesday. “It will be welcomed by a stronger, broader and more united Alliance”he promised. Questioned by AFP, Kathleen McInnis, analyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, envisages in the coming weeks “something of the order of the ‘silent dimension’ [des Etats-Unis] s’agissant de l’Otan”.
Taiwan: conditional support in the event of a Chinese invasion?
During his first term, Donald Trump brought the United States closer to Taiwan, to the great dismay of China, which considers the island to be part of its territory. Even before taking office in 2017, he created a diplomatic incident with Beijing by speaking on the phone with the Taiwanese president at the time, Tsai Ing-wen, an unprecedented gesture. Since then, the United States has remained the island’s most powerful ally and its main arms supplier. They claim a policy of “strategic ambiguity”: without recognizing Taiwan, nor supporting the idea of formal independence, they oppose any reunification by force. For the first time, they even voted this year for direct military assistance to Taiwan.
Donald Trump’s campaign statements in recent months suggest a change in position. “A growing specter of conflict hangs over Taiwan”recognized the Republican candidate in July, recalls AFP, while Beijing is threatening a military invasion to regain control. But “I think Taiwan should pay us for its defense”he argued, comparing the United States to “an insurance company” to which Taiwan should now “donner” contributions. Joe Biden clearly stressed that he would intervene to defend the island, if necessary.
Taiwan risks having to deal with the character “mercantilist” of Donald Trump, told AFP Wen-Ti Sung, researcher at the Atlantic Council in Taipei. The elected president could even want to transform the island into an instrument of bargaining with Beijing, he suggests. “Recent comments from Donald Trump highlight his transactional approach to foreign policy and risk unsettling Taipei”agrees Ali Wyne, researcher at the International Crisis Group. For its part, the Taiwanese government, while evoking a “common responsibility” to maintain peace in the region, responded clearly to Donald Trump’s comments this summer: “We have to rely on ourselves.”
