The MR became the leading political party on the French-speaking side while in Flanders, the N-VA remained in the lead. Even if Vlaams Belang is making progress, the expected far-right tidal wave has not taken place.
“It’s a historic moment”, exclaimed Sunday in front of the activists and representatives of his party, the president of the MR, Georges-Louis Bouchez. The French-speaking liberals won Brussels and should in all likelihood win Wallonia, both in the federal parliament and in the Regions, a first in their history. It is now up to them to open negotiations with a view to training the executives. Contacts will be made from Monday, assured Mr. Bouchez, who wishes to form governments as quickly as possible, with the prospect of securing the minister-presidency in Brussels, Wallonia and the Wallonia-Brussels Federation. Les Engagés will constitute its privileged partner.
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Until now, the PS has remained discreet. The president, Paul Magnette, delivered a short statement in which he noted “a shift to the right” of the country, socialists who “maintain” in Brussels and are in “erosion in Wallonia” where definitive results were awaited, notably in Hainaut, stronghold of the socialists. An office is convened Monday afternoon after which he is expected to say more. Regardless, the loss is severe for the party which dominated the French-speaking political scene almost without exception for several decades. It is now overtaken by the crisis of social democracy which has gripped many left-wing groups in Europe. And it was not so much the progression of the PTB that cost it dearly as the victory of the MR on the right and that, in the center, of the Engagés. The socialists are also isolated: the PTB seems at this time an unlikely partner in a coalition and Ecolo collapsed once again after participating in power, as in 2003-2004 and as in 2014.
The N-VA, on the other side of the linguistic border, is the big winner. She certainly lost a seat in the House but remained in first place, well beyond what the polls predicted. And if Vlaams Belang progresses, it fails to take first place. The specter of a breakdown of the cordon santé around the far-right is receding.
Unlike Brussels and Wallonia, the left found some color in Flanders with the progress of Vooruit and the PTB-PvdA tempered by the losses of Groen, although in lesser proportions than its French-speaking brother. The big loser is undoubtedly the Open Vld. In October 2020, in the midst of a health crisis, its leader, Alexander De Croo, received the post of Prime Minister and took the head of a Vivaldi coalition with seven parties and without a majority in Flanders. Three and a half years later, at the end of a campaign focused on him, his political party experienced a historic defeat which has already caused the resignation of President Tom Ongena.
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What about possible coalitions? In Brussels, even if it overtakes the PS, the MR will not be able to do without the socialists to form a majority… and the mayor of Brussels, Philippe Close, has already pointed out that, in the capital, left-wing parties were not far from 50%. In Wallonia, an MR-Engagés coalition cannot be ruled out. The PS would find itself in opposition, as during the brief period of the Borsus government between 2017 and 2019.
In Flanders, the president of the N-VA, Bart De Wever, also has the hand. In view of the defeat of the liberals and the looming opposition cure, the “Swedish” will not be renewed. On the other hand, a rise in Vooruit is very likely.
At the federal level, it is up to the King to appoint mission leaders, in principle an informant, after hearing the party presidents. Several coalition avenues are possible. The equation must also take into account one parameter: Mr. De Wever has clearly announced his desire to give more autonomy to Flanders. A prospect which involves finding a two-thirds majority… A real headache in the current state of things.
