these electorates which made Donald Trump win

This was Kamala Harris' mission throughout the campaign: to mobilize women and minorities of color to swing the election in her favor. The bet failed: by winning Wisconsin at the end of the morning, Donald Trump crossed the threshold of 270 voters necessary to be elected president. Before that, he had triumphed in the key states of Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Georgia. Those in Michigan, Arizona and Nevada are expected to follow. Donald Trump owes this victory to several electorates, who voted more for him than in 2020, the year of his defeat against Joe Biden.

The first major issue was that of women's votes. A first poll from the polls, carried out by the Edison Research institute, indicates that Donald Trump won over 44% of women nationally, compared to 54% for Kamala Harris. It thus increases its total by two points compared to 2020. The right to abortion, the trump card played by the Democratic candidate to convince voters, therefore does not seem to have worked. Conversely, Donald Trump's softening of rhetoric on this subject may have borne fruit. Moreover, voters who believe that abortion should be a legal procedure only supported Kamala Harris by 51%, compared to 47% for Donald Trump.

Racial factor

Another significant gain for Donald Trump: the Hispanic vote. By winning 45% of the Latino vote, according to the Edison poll, the billionaire increased his total by 13 points compared to 2020. He even placed himself in the lead among Hispanic male voters (54%), up 18 points. If Kamala Harris retains the lead among female voters (61%), Donald Trump is also up by seven points. The racist outing of one of his supporters during a rally at Madison Square Garden, where he described Puerto Rico as “floating garbage island”, does not appear to have had a negative effect on the Latino community.

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The issue of the black electorate also had to weigh on the ballot. So much so that Kamala Harris called on former President Barack Obama at the end of the campaign to mobilize the crowds. Again, the strategy did not work. With 86% of the black vote, Kamala Harris did no better than Joe Biden in 2020. Donald Trump did not improve his score (12%) nationally either, but he outperformed in certain states- keys, the ones that really matter. In North Carolina, for example, the Republican candidate attracted 12% of the black electorate, compared to 5% in 2020. Nationally, he gained one point among black men (20%) and lost two points among women (7%), compared to 2020.

There is one racial factor that did not benefit Donald Trump: the vote of the white population. According to the Edison poll, the Republican candidate has fallen by three points among this electorate (55%) compared to 2020, although he retains the majority. It is notably down by two points among white men and by three points among white women.

Economic factor

Donald Trump has retained his aura among the population whose main concern is the economy. 79% of them voted for the Republican candidate. This proportion rises to 80% among voters who said their family's financial situation was worse today than four years ago. Donald Trump appears to have particularly improved his scores in suburban counties and rural regions, but also in some large historically Democratic cities.

Sociological factors

One of Donald Trump's biggest gains seems to be among young people. According to the Edison poll, the Republican candidate increased his share of voters aged 18 to 29 by six points, to reach a score of 42%. Votes from voters under 45 are also up two points. Conversely, Donald Trump lost three points among those over 65. Its score is similar among those over 45.

In addition, the billionaire gains four points (54%) among voters without a university degree. On the other hand, he lost two points (41%) among voters with higher education.

Religious factor

Donald Trump also achieved the feat of turning over the vote of Catholics, who represent 22% of the electorate. With 56% of their votes, he is well ahead of Kamala Harris (41%). In 2020, Catholics supported Joe Biden with a five-point margin over Donald Trump, who became the second Catholic president of the United States. The vote of other faiths does not change too much compared to 2020. Protestants still vote largely Republican (62%), just as Jews overwhelmingly support Democrats (79%). Other religions, including Muslims, chose Kamala Harris at 60%, as did voters who claim no religion (72%).