A few hours before the American elections, Russia continues to gain ground in Ukraine. According to AFP figures, Vladimir Putin's troops advanced by 478 km² during the month of October. This is the largest territorial advance of the Russian army in a month since March 2022. For comparison, during the entire year 2023, Russia managed to conquer 584 km².
This acceleration of the Russian offensive coincides with two events likely to influence the course of the war. “There are two deadlines coming up in this war: the American elections (this November 5, Editor’s note) Of course and the arrival of winter, explains General (2S) Jérôme Pellistrandi, editor-in-chief of the National Defense Magazine. For the senior officer, it is precisely because of these two deadlines that Russia is throwing all its forces into the battle.
A return to the White House of Donald Trump could change American policy on the Ukrainian conflict. The Republican candidate has already announced, in the event of election, his intention to negotiate “in 24 hours” a peace plan with Vladimir Putin. This could include a transfer of Crimea and Donbass to Russia. “Today, for the Russians, all the square kilometers taken can be the subject of a deal in a future negotiation if Trump is elected. The only thing the Ukrainians can do is hold on, awaiting the outcome of the US elections which will potentially mean the end of the war,” sums up the general.
“The Russians have every interest, for the moment, in trying to gain as much ground as possible »
The second deadline is the imminent arrival of General Winter, who will fall for the 2e consecutive year on the Ukrainian front. With the drop in temperature and winter rains, the large agricultural areas of Ukraine will be transformed into fields of mud, making it impossible for armored vehicles to advance. “The Russians have every interest, for the moment, in trying to gain as much ground as possible. Because in a few weeks maybethey will no longer be able to progress in Ukraine. »
The Russian advance was marked by notable conquests, such as that on October 29 of the town of Selidovo, in eastern Ukraine. A real victory for Russia, the fighting having raged for three months in this town of 20,000 inhabitants. If on the Ukrainian side the atmosphere is gloomy, in Russia, the time is for optimism and some see the military advances as a sign of a collapse of the Ukrainian front. “The Ukrainian front is not collapsing, tempers General Pellistrandi, certainly it is crumbling, but the Ukrainians are holding on. They are forced to give ground but for all that, we cannot consider that Russia is significantly breaking through the front in the Donbass. »
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Ukraine's difficulties
The retreat of the Ukrainian army could be due to a lack of weapons and ammunition as much asto the rise of the Russian army. “Russian gunners have more North Korean and Iranian ammunition than the Ukrainians”explains General Pellistrandi. An imbalance which accentuates Russian superiority on the ground. “The Russians allow themselves to fire ten, twenty shells at the same target, while the Ukrainians must succeed on the first try…”
« LThe Russians have a much greater human resource, especially with the arrival of the North Koreans”
HAS This weakness in material resources is compounded by a perhaps even more serious weakness in human resources. As the mobilizations continue (on October 29, Volodymyr Zelensky announced a new levy of 160,000 men), the Ukrainian army is having more and more difficulty replenishing its ranks. “The Ukrainian reservoir is much weaker than the Russian reservoir, the Ukrainian government continues mobilizations, while the Russians have much greater human resources, particularly with the arrival of the North Koreans. » Washington has in fact claimed to have “ concrete evidence » of the presence of North Korean troops in Russian military bases, with the possibility of a future deployment in Ukraine. Claims formally denied by Moscow.
The fate of Ukraine could therefore be decided during the night from Tuesday to Wednesday. “The night of November 5 is going to be a very long night for the Russians and the Ukrainians, says General Pellistrandi. These elections will be pivotal in the course of this war. » It is estimated that Ukraine has lost nearly 10 million inhabitants since the start of the war, due to deaths linked to the conflict but also to the fall in the birth rate and the exodus of the population. It had 41 million in 2021.
