It’s time for “crystallization”. Three days before the European elections, our Odoxa survey, with Mascaret, for Public Senate and the regional press, confirms the major trends in voting intentions.
However, we observe some adjustments: 32% for RN Jordan Bardella, who loses 2 points (compared to the month of May). 15% for Valérie Hayer (Renaissance), 14% for Raphaël Glucksmann (PS-PP, +0.5), 7% for Manon Aubry (LFI), 7% for François-Xavier Bellamy (LR), 5% for Marie Toussaint (The Ecologists, -1), 6% for Marion Maréchal (Reconquest, +2), 3.5% for the Animalist Party (+2) and 2% for Léon Deffontaines (PCF, -0.5). For more details on voting intentions, see our article on the subject.
52% of executives plan to go to the polls, 42% of employees and workers
The survey is also rich in information on the profile of French people ready to travel on Sunday. The participation rate is given at 50.7% in this study. In 2019, participation rose to 50.12%.
54% of men plan to vote, compared to 45% of women. The expected participation rate is much higher among the oldest (60% among those aged 65 and over, compared to 33% among those aged 18-24) and among the wealthiest (61% among the wealthiest households, compared to 36% among those aged 18-24). % among the most modest).
According to socio-professional categories, 52% of executives plan to go to the polls, 42% of employees and workers and 59% of retirees.
The RN list scores slightly better with women than men
The profile of Jordan Bardella’s electorate, which brings together 35% of the women’s vote against 30% of the men’s vote (but the difference is within the statistical margin of error), shows that the head of the RN list consolidates the fringes of the electorate often favorable to the National Rally: a rather older vote (42% among 35-49 year olds and 37% among 50-64 year olds, 25% among 65 year olds and over), rural and peri-urban (41% of the vote rural communities, 43% of small towns), very strong among employees and workers (44%), as well as the self-employed (40%).
But Jordan Bardella is also making progress among executives, gathering 27% of their vote, surpassing Valérie Hayer’s list by more than ten points (16%), while Emmanuel Macron is originally strong on this segment of the population. Another weak signal which should alert the macronists: Raphaël Glucksmann exceeds the list of the majority among executives, with 19%, the category where he scores the highest (but the difference is within the margin of error).
According to age, Valérie Hayer achieved her best result among those aged 65 and over
Valérie Hayer’s list has its best result among those aged 65 and over (24%, at the same level as the RN), compared to only 9% among those aged 18-24. It is in the Paris metropolitan area that it achieves its highest score (25%), compared to 9% in rural communities and 13% in small towns.
24% of retirees are ready to vote for Valérie Hayer according to our survey, compared to 17% of independents, 16% of managers and intermediate professions and only 6% of employees and workers.
According to the categories, Raphaël Glucksmann makes his biggest score among executives
The vote for Raphaël Glucksmann’s list is fairly homogeneous, neither too low nor too high, in each category: 11% among 18-24 year olds, 15% among those aged 65 and over; 12% in rural communities, 14% in small towns such as metropolises, 17% in medium-sized towns and 14% in the Paris region.
It is among executives that the PS-Place Publique list scores its highest, with 19%, 17% among intermediate professions, compared to 10% among employees and workers and 15% among retirees.
Methodology :
Survey carried out online from June 5 to 6, 2024. Representative sample of 1,808 French people aged 18 and over, including 1,654 registered on the electoral lists. Important point: the margins of error of voting intentions are established according to the targeted score, between plus or minus 1.4 and 3 points.
