“Win without fighting”wrote the Chinese strategist Sun Tzu. Advice applied to the letter thirty centuries later by the generals of the People’s Army who are waging a war of nerves with Taiwan. This gunboat policy is the new normal in the Formosa Strait where the Chinese army has carried out three successive waves of military maneuvers in the last month alone, mobilizing hundreds of aircraft, warships and, for the first time , its two aircraft carriers.
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“There is the desire to scare the Taiwanese to distance them from pro-independence trends, and also from strategic aspects, because China needs to better coordinate its land, sea and air operations”explains Brian Hart, of the Strategic Center for International Studies, who recalls that Beijing has not fought a war for forty-five years and lost battles on the Vietnamese border. “Each exercise in the area prevents the movement of civil planes and cargo ships”continues Brian Hart. “The threat facing us includes military coercion, but also economic warfare, hybrid warfare, legal warfare and psychological warfare”summarizes Joseph Wu, head of Taiwan’s National Security Council.
Beijing picks up the pace
Not to mention the 90,000 attempted cyberattacks each month targeting government infrastructure, but also power plants, hospitals and businesses on the island. The calendar also plays a role in Beijing’s desire to accelerate the pace of preparations for all-out war. Not only did the communist regime want to respond this week to the sale by the United States for more than a billion dollars of weapons, including anti-aircraft systems, missiles and radars, part of which was taken from the stocks of the American Air Force, but above all he wants to put pressure on the future American administration. Both Democrats and Republicans are leaving doubts about a military response in the event of a Chinese invasion.
“Donald Trump has not committed to using military force to defend Taiwan”
“Donald Trump has not committed to using military force to defend Taiwan, instead emphasizing his preference for economic sanctions. Which would be useless, assure Sasha Chhabra, expert at the Global Taiwan Institute. Beijing has already priced in the costs associated with an invasion, which in itself would create a global economic disaster with the destruction of Taiwan’s semiconductor industry which accounts for 90% of global production. Economic sanctions are ineffective anyway; we saw it with Russia, Burma and Cuba. »
Donald Trump is not the only one to hesitate, Kamala Harris also cultivates ambiguity. “When asked if she would defend Taiwan, she did not confirm wanting to uphold President Biden’s pledge to use military force to repel an invasion. However, only a credible security deterrent, supported by the American military, could have a significant deterrent effect against Beijing’s aggressiveness.concludes Chhabra.
