Zhao Tong is research director of the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Foundation's Center on Contemporary China. Long based in Beijing, he now lives in Washington, where he conducts research on strategic security issues in the Asia-Pacific region as well as China's foreign and security policy.
Did the sending of North Korean troops to the Kursk region, in support of Russian forces in the war in Ukraine, surprise China?
No one knows if China was notified in advance of this decision or when it would have been, but I doubt that it was informed early. Chinese diplomats even asked their foreign colleagues what they knew about Moscow-Pyongyang collaboration. It therefore appears that Beijing was not really consulted. And that Russia and North Korea have instead kept the full extent of their cooperation to themselves. The level of this took China by surprise, in particular the size of the contingent sent by the North Koreans [10 000 hommes, selon le Pentagone, le 23 octobre] on the Ukrainian battlefield.
Aren't Moscow and Pyongyang nevertheless dependent on Beijing?
Russia is increasingly dependent on China, due to its economic isolation after the invasion of Ukraine. Beijing supports its defense industry, obviously vital to its war effort. For its part, North Korea is historically extremely dependent on China. In recent years, however, Moscow has been more eager to strengthen economic ties with Pyongyang, while Beijing has shown some restraint.
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North Korea's very strong economic dependence on China is partly linked to Russia's past reluctance to help. For a long time, the latter paid little attention to it and was content to remain in the background, behind China, in North-East Asia. But his needs linked to the war in Ukraine changed the situation. In return for North Korean support, Moscow is increasing the economic aid it provides to Pyongyang: Russia has significant capacities and produces quantities of food and hydrocarbons that the North Korean economy needs. Chinese domination over North Korea is diluted.
What are the implications for Beijing of the strengthened partnership between Moscow and Pyongyang?
North Korea has been less willing to respond to China's demands on issues important to Chinese security. Beijing is not in favor of accelerating North Korea's nuclear and ballistic programs, but with Moscow's help, Pyongyang can move forward in developing its missiles. Its progress worries South Korea and Japan, who are thus encouraged to strengthen their cooperation with the United States. From the Chinese point of view, North Korean provocations can serve as a pretext for the Americans to strengthen their strategic presence in the region. The Washington-Seoul-Tokyo triangle is consolidated.
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