Foreign policy under a possible Trump presidency in 2024 should be marked by an isolationist turn which could push the Americans' traditional allies, notably the Israelis, to seek diplomatic solutions.
A column by Magali Rawan
If Donald Trump becomes president again in 2024, his foreign policy should mark a significant departure from the Biden administration's current approach. Displaying a return to the slogan “America First,” this strategy would prioritize American national interests, reducing military engagement abroad and relying on assertive nationalism and unilateral choices. This direction would aim to restructure U.S. international alliances and commitments based on domestic needs. Nearly 70% of his future administration's efforts could thus be devoted to domestic policies, including reducing the influence of the federal state and fighting what he calls “the deep state.”
The imprint of the Carlson-Vance doctrine
The potential Trump presidency could be marked by the influence of conservative figures like Tucker Carlson and JD Vance. The first is a journalist followed by 14 million people on X and the second is the running mate of the Republican vice-presidential candidate. Both are followers of a minimalist foreign policy and very critical of American military interventions abroad.
In view of his presidential candidacy in 2028, each movement of JD Vance, leading candidate for the Republican nomination for the 2028 presidential election, will be influenced by his long-term calculations, in particular to seduce a generation of increasingly young people. pacifists and followers of “America First”. With his influence and dynamism, Vance is positioned to play a key role in shaping Trump's foreign policy doctrine.
This influence could prompt Trump to review military support for historic allies such as Israel and Ukraine. This vision, advocating greater autonomy for the United States' partners, could push the latter to seek diplomatic solutions. However, the idea of reducing military assistance could face internal opposition, particularly among interventionist hawks like Pompeo, Cotton and O'Brien, who favor strong support for Israel.
The end of the agreement with Iran
Trump appears determined to rule out any prospect of a return to the Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA), opting instead for “automatic sanctions” and increased pressure to force Tehran into negotiations on a new framework. Such an approach could, however, come into conflict with the isolationist doctrine of Carlson and Vance, who are reluctant to military interventions. Internal tensions could therefore emerge, especially if more aggressive initiatives towards Iran were to be considered.
In the region, Trump may seek to deepen normalization agreements between Israel and Arab countries, particularly Saudi Arabia. But the conclusion of ambitious agreements could be hampered by the lack of support in Congress. Israel, for its part, could take advantage of the transition period preceding Trump's inauguration to intensify its regional operations, notably in Lebanon or against Iran.
With Ukraine, support to be redefined
Trump's strategy towards Ukraine could include a desire to resolve the conflict in an accelerated manner, potentially at the cost of concessions from kyiv. By asking European countries to strengthen their own defense, Trump could consider a reduction in U.S. aid to Ukraine unless allies increase their contributions. Its tense relationship with NATO suggests that pressure on European partners could be repeated, risking creating friction within the alliance. Advisors aligned with Carlson and Vance may view this strategy favorably, while others may fear for regional stability.
Trump's approach to the federal bureaucracy could mean cuts to strategic agencies such as the State Department and intelligence agencies, aimed at weakening their influence and favoring more transactional diplomacy. However, officials within the defense and intelligence services could resist these changes, arguing the risk of weakening the fight against terrorism and cybersecurity. Trump's desire to limit American involvement in international crises, such as in Ukraine, could also run up against fears of destabilization among his own advisers.
China at the center of concerns
Facing China, Trump's policy should be geared towards strengthening the economic and military power of the United States, with measures such as increasing customs tariffs and ending trade privileges. The building of strengthened alliances in the Indo-Pacific region may intensify. However, opposition could arise internally, where voices call for moderation to avoid harmful economic consequences.
If Donald Trump wins the presidency, his foreign policy could revolve around a reorientation toward domestic interests, accompanied by a reduction in American engagement on the international stage. However, implementing this vision could face institutional resistance and complex regional dynamics, particularly during the transition period when allies like Israel may attempt to maximize their gains before the official start of the mandate.
JD Vance's strategic stance for a 2028 presidential bid, advocating restraint and a domestic focus, will likely add another layer of influence in Trump's foreign policy trajectory.
