A recent survey analysis of TIPP Insights reveals a tight race between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris for the 2024 presidential elections. With each at 48% support according to the poll, one key point could tip the scales in Trump's favor: its significant gains among black voters and seniors.
Trump's progress with minorities and seniors
According to the data, Trump made notable gains with black voters, gaining 8.1 percentage points in that group. He also strengthened his support among voters with only a high school diploma (+13.9 points) and those aged 65 and older (+8 points). Although the analysis does not provide details regarding Harris or Trump's gains among other minority groups like Latinos, Asians or Native Americans, TIPP notes that differences in support between the candidates are primarily related to the level of education.
For her part, Kamala Harris strengthened her position among voters with a university degree (+6.3 points) and independents (+5 points). These gains could help balance Trump's advantages in other demographic groups. However, TIPP points out that the electoral structure of the United States, with the electoral college, could be favorable to Trump, despite a strong Democratic presence in states like New York and California.
The Impact of Votes in Swing States
A crucial point in this analysis is Trump's positioning in the seven Sinw States — Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina and Georgia. Trump leads by an average percentage point in these strategic states, where the final outcome will likely be decided. This position contrasts sharply with the previous elections of 2020 and 2016, when Democrats Joe Biden and Hillary Clinton had a lead of 4 and 5 points respectively, underlines the importance of these states for the ultimate victory.
Third party candidates also influence vote share. The Green Party's Jill Stein and independent candidate Cornell West attract about 1% of support each. In a close race, even a small share of the electorate could tip the scales, increasing uncertainty for both major parties.
Record participation in early voting
Early turnout is breaking records, especially in key states like Georgia and North Carolina. According to the University of Florida Election Lab, about 60 million people have already voted, including 33 million in person and 29 million by mail. The data shows a slightly higher number of Democrats voting by mail, while Republicans dominate early in-person voting.
As Election Day approaches, Trump and Harris are ramping up their campaign events, each aiming to galvanize support in swing states. In an election that could be decided by a razor-thin margin, the mobilization of each demographic group, particularly minorities and independents, could determine the final outcome.
Photo credit: DR
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