LLast week, in the heart of a resilient but exhausted kyiv, I accompanied a “Security and Defense” delegation from the European Parliament. Our exchanges with the Ukrainian Prime Minister, his ministers and some deputies were frank, marked with dignity and realism. But a question now arises: can Ukraine still win this war?
The truth is disturbing: despite all Ukraine's bravery, Europe simply does not have the means to guarantee victory. In reality, we are keeping Ukraine in a hopeless war, fueled by insufficient support that allows it to survive, but never triumph. Behind the promises and declarations of solidarity, there is a limit that Europe has neither the resources nor the will to cross.
ALSO READ Ukraine: the awakening will be brutalAs for the United States, their support remains essential, but it is extremely fragile. For Washington, Ukraine is not a strategic priority. American concerns lie elsewhere: the pivot towards Asia, facing a China perceived as the real threat to their hegemony, and the protection of their close allies, such as Israel. In truth, the United States can withdraw from this conflict at any time. This support, although massive, is in no way guaranteed over time. What will happen if a political reversal or a crisis elsewhere pushes Washington to refocus its efforts? For Ukraine, a US withdrawal would mean collapse.
For Ukraine, the ordeal is endless; for Europe, it becomes unsustainable
kyiv's determination is admirable, but it comes up against a military reality that overwhelms it. A quarter of its territory, firstly, is under Russian control and Moscow resolutely continues its encroachment; every day, 29,000 Russian shells fall on their positions, compared to 17,000 on the Ukrainian side. This ratio of 1.5 for the Russians reflects the impossibility for the Ukrainians to stop their attackers; the Russian war machine is racing: in one year, according to Ukrainian intelligence services, it has produced more than 1,150 tanks, 4,300 cannons, and thousands of drones. For comparison, France has 220 tanks in total. Ukraine is cornered, while Europe is seriously lacking in resources.
Added to this is the Ukrainian demographic winter. Since the start of the conflict, Europe has absorbed nearly 7 million refugees, the vast majority of whom risk never returning. The Ukrainian political authorities are concerned, because out of an initial population of 40 million people, there are only 33 million left, knowing that the fertility rate of 1.54 children per woman is low. Conversely, Russia has a population of around 140 million inhabitants and, therefore, a much greater mobilization capacity. The outcome of the conflict will determine the extent of this demographic deficit with extremely significant human losses of several hundred thousand killed and injured on both sides.
ALSO READ Is the West doomed to lose the war in Ukraine? As kyiv prepares to enter a third winter of bombs, Russia promises to wipe out Ukraine's energy network by the end of the year. For Ukraine, the ordeal is endless. For Europe, it is becoming unsustainable. And what do we Westerners do? Eastern Europe calls for the defeat of Russia, the Anglo-Saxons hope for its definitive weakening, and Western Europe dreams of an illusory peace. The fragmentation of our strategy only worsens the impasse. The truth is that Europe has neither the unity nor the power to bring Russia to its knees.
The European Union could offer Ukraine “privileged partner” status
So what is left for Ukraine? We offer him something to survive, but never something to earn. We let a courageous people fight with insufficient means, without ever offering them the hope of victory. For Europe, the cost is too heavy. For the United States, the priority lies elsewhere. And for Ukraine, this wavering support could prove fatal.
Faced with this impasse, could a diplomatic solution finally emerge? If the military route seems uncertain, a negotiated resolution, addressing the deep roots of the conflict, could offer a way out. The history of the region shows us how entrenched antagonisms and territorial ambitions remain. A realistic compromise would be to consider Russia limiting its claims to the acquisition of Donbass and Crimea, while taking into account the importance of regional stability. For Moscow, this would require unconditional recognition of Ukraine's sovereignty, as well as an acceptance of its definitive link with the West, guaranteeing sufficient security to deter any recurrence.
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Kangaroo of the day
Answer
In this context, the European Union could offer Ukraine “privileged partner” status, strengthening its economic development and political integration. This status would allow Ukraine to benefit from increased support from Europe, while placing it in the European concert. To respond to threats, Europe has no other choice than to equip itself with incomparable dissuasive power, to build an autonomous defense, adapted to the new geopolitical situation, and to open a specific path of cooperation to others. States of the former Soviet bloc seeking protection and stability.
* Christophe Gomartfour-star general and Les Républicains MEP since June 2024, is vice-president of the “Security and Defense” subcommittee of the European Parliament.
