In the south of the country, a trend is confirmed from survey to survey: the gains of the MR and especially the Engagés. This reversal towards the center right is carefully observed in Flanders, where we are beginning to believe in a coalition of the right, at the federal level. But it seems that we will have to invite another protagonist to the table.
The awakening of the Walloon right
The latest survey carried out by Cluster17, in partnership with RTL-Infodoes not contain big surprises, but reinforces trends. The Engagés clearly have the wind in their sails, in Wallonia, at 17.9% (+7.2%), becoming the third political force in the south of the country. The PS and the MR, at 23.9% and 23%, are neck and neck for first place. Together, the MR and the Engagés would weigh nearly 41%. If we add DéFI (4%), the center right is progressing like never before in Wallonia.
In Brussels, the MR (22.9%) consolidates its first place in poll after poll. The majority pay the high price: -5% for the PS (15%) and -10% for Ecolo (11.6%), while DéFI is only at 7%. The Committed benefited little and garnered 2% (7.8%), the PTB took the lead at 19.8% (+7.5%).
A coalition of the right?
In terms of translation into seats, at the federal level, the MR obtains 17 seats and the Engagés 10. Is the dream of a right-wing coalition realistic? By adding the Engagés to a Swedish configuration, the accounts are not good, since this coalition, bringing together two political families in addition to the N-VA, would only collect 65 seats out of 150. In the previous survey of Evening/RTL Infothis configuration had 67. A surprise guest must therefore be added.
The game changer
This guest is ideal for analysts from the north of the country. This is Vooruit, whose president declared, just yesterday, that her party was not stuck to the PS. “We are two separate parties,” she slipped, although she recognized that it was “always easier together than alone”. Programmatically, and in a Flemish context, it is clear that the socialists from the north of the country have moved their lines towards the center. Three examples: Vooruit is not against the limitation of unemployment benefits over time, unlike the PS. And under the previous legislature, Franck Vandenbroucke saw his desire to make long-term sick people more responsible being slowed down by the PS. On the migration aspect, Vooruit also takes much less tweezers.
This declaration, which is not the result of chance, is seen as a potential game-changerat the end of the campaign. And this hypothesis is reinforced by the desire, more or less stated, for an agreement between the N-VA and Vooruit, at the Flemish level.
The Liberals and the N-VA
Eventually, the biggest obstacle to this coalition is between the liberals and the Flemish nationalists. Bart De Wever makes the PS his preferred interlocutor to carry out state reform. At the same time, the N-VA is doing everything to complete the Open Vld, by systematically attacking Alexander De Croo. And the nationalist president has no feeling with the president of the MR, Georges-Louis Bouchez.
But hands are outstretched by the liberals. Last night, during the president of the Flemish debates, Alexander De Croo even opened the door of Le Seize to Bart De Weveras part of a coalition of the right, to achieve the necessary socio-economic reforms.
On the French-speaking side, Georges-Louis Bouchez no longer extends his hands, but his arms. Even mentioning, during a debate with Theo Francken (N-VA), the possibility of regionalizing the job market to make the Regions financially responsible. Bart De Wever “accepted” this liberal outstretched hand: “Normally, until the elections, it is ‘born in‘, ‘nooit‘, ‘no’, ‘never’ as Paul Magnette always shouts. But here, we clearly see that things are moving.”
The PS as a rampart
A sign that this coalition of the right is starting to worry, on the left, Thomas Dermine (PS) warned French speakers, in an interview today on 7sur7 : “Mr. Bouchez falls straight into the trap that the N-VA is setting for him. The unraveling of the country is happening before our eyes.”
Before him, Paul Magnette brought out the verse of the PS, savior of Belgium, in the face of nationalist desires. Let’s see if this refrain can slow down the socialists’ slowdown in voting intentions. The mayor of Charleroi forgets, but we are in the campaign, that it is his party which went the furthest in negotiations with the N-VA, in 2020. It remains to be seen if the voter remembers this.
