DECRYPTION – The former US president was found criminally guilty in the Stormy Daniels affair. But the billionaire may not be definitively condemned before his possible presidential victory in November.
The conviction is unprecedented in U.S. political history. Donald Trump was found guilty of all 34 counts brought against him by the New York State justice system in the Stormy Daniels affair. Not since George Washington has a former tenant of the Oval Office been criminally charged or convicted.
Even if convicted of a crime, the real estate mogul will be able to stand in the November 5 election against Joe Biden and, in the event of victory, return to the White House on January 20, 2025. The Constitution of the United States sets three conditions to be able to be a candidate for the supreme office in the United States: to be over 35 years old, to have been born in the United States and to have resided there for more than fourteen years. A criminal conviction, even accompanied by a prison sentence, cannot therefore prevent an application.
In addition, Judge Merchan is due to pronounce his sentence on July 11. If a prison sentence seems highly improbable in the unanimous opinion of observers, the former president could receive a suspended probationary period or community service, possibly accompanied by a fine. But it is a safe bet that the application of the verdict will be postponed until after the November 5 election, with Trump’s lawyers having announced that they will appeal ” as soon as possible “.
A completely new scenario then emerges. What would happen if Donald Trump was convicted after being re-elected? A question all the more serious as the other criminal proceedings opened against the billionaire could very well not lead to any conviction before the presidential election. The billionaire is federally accused of conspiring to overturn the results of the 2020 election, which culminated in the riot against the Capitol on January 6, 2021, and of illegally retaining confidential documents in Florida after having left the White House. He is also being prosecuted in Georgia for trying to overturn the results of the election in that state.
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The hypothesis of “self-grace”
But these procedures have all been delayed. In Georgia, prosecutor Fani Willis, in charge of the case, was the subject of controversy concerning an affair with an investigator mobilized on the case. Above all, the Supreme Court must render its verdict concerning the extent of Donald Trump’s immunity. The text of the Constitution does not provide for presidential immunity. “It would have been unthinkable for the founding fathers that a president or a former president could be criminally indicted », Underlines Lauric Henneton, lecturer at the University of Versailles-Saint-Quentin and specialist in American history. But in the silence of the Constitution, the Supreme Court had ruled that presidents enjoyed immunity from civil liability for official acts.
Trump is now demanding that this protection be extended to criminal matters. The judges’ decision should come at the end of June or the beginning of July. But it will probably give rise to other appeals, to determine for example which acts are official and which are private… And Trump could also play the appeal card in the event that another conviction falls before November 5. “Donald Trump would have every interest in increasing calls to drag out his trials until his possible re-election », summarizes François de Chantal, professor at Paris-Cité University and specialist in the United States.
Re-elected, Trump would indeed have new advantages: he could order the federal prosecutions to be dropped, or even pardon himself if he were to be convicted. If some American jurists are skeptical about the possibility of this “self-pardon”, the majority of them believe that it is possible. This legal-institutional sleight of hand could not, however, apply either in the Stormy Daniels affair, or before the Georgian state, the federal executive having no right over state justice.
Can we imagine the President of the United States being criminally convicted while in office? “If this crazy scenario comes true, it seems unthinkable that Trump would receive a prison sentence», ventures François de Chantal. “Such a political earthquake could plunge an already ultra-polarized America into chaos of violence”, agrees Lauric Henneton. “A suspended sentence or a fine seems more likely, unless the trials are postponed until the end of the mandate, continues François de Chantal. But above all we are in total limbo, because all the limits of the system have been put to the test since 2016 and the arrival of Trump . »
THE“true verdict”will be November 5, reacted Donald Trump after the announcement of his conviction. In fact, if he wins at the polls, the billionaire has every chance of escaping prison… for the duration of his mandate.
