Beijing definitely did not digest the declarations of the new Taiwanese president, Lai Ching-te, during his inauguration. China had described Tuesday May 21, the day after the inauguration speech of the new Taiwanese president Lai Ching-te, as “recognition of Taiwan’s independence“and threatened him with”reprisals“. This Thursday, May 23, the threats were carried out with major military exercises carried out by China all around the island involving warships and combat planes. Here are some elements of context:
The official reasons for these maneuvers
Taiwan has had its own government and institutions distinct from those of the People’s Republic of China since 1949, when the Kuomintang nationalists, defeated by the communists on the mainland, retreated to the island. China considers Taiwan as one of its provinces and aims for its reunification with the rest of the country, without excluding the use of force.
The Taiwanese head of state has been described by Beijing as a “dangerous separatist“for his past statements in favor of Taiwan’s independence, although he has since moderated his speech.”Beijing fears that Lai, by pushing towards de facto independence, is coming dangerously close to… encouraging the international community to support formal independence“, explains Rorry Daniels, director general of the Asia Society Policy Institute, to AFP.
During his swearing-in on Monday, President Lai vowed to uphold democracy and said both sides “were not subordinate to each other“Beijing presented the maneuvers on Thursday as a “severe punishment” of the “Taiwan independence forces“However, their preparation had to begin before Lai’s speech,” said J. Michael Cole, a security specialist based in Taipei.Beijing decided long ago that whatever Lai said, it would be unsatisfactory and would call for a reaction.“, he told AFP.
What goal is China pursuing?
According to analysts, these exercises are above all a message addressed to Taiwan and its allies. “This is a warning to both the Lai administration and Washington“to mean that China”can and will continue to pressure Taiwan if Lai does not return to a more moderate tone and approach” said Amanda Hsiao of the International Crisis Group.
The People’s Liberation Army intends to prove “that if necessary, it has the capacity to quickly impose a blockade (of the Taiwanese archipelago), to put an end to armed intervention by external forces and to quickly resolve the question of Taiwan“, Song Zhongping, analyst and former Chinese army officer, told AFP.
But the exercises are also aimed at a domestic audience: according to James Char, an expert on the Chinese military at Nanyang Technological University (NTU) in Singapore, they constitute “a proven way“for the CCP”to allay popular nationalists’ concerns about the regime’s ability to defend China’s national sovereignty“.
Specificities of current maneuvers
China has already organized similar military exercises, notably in August 2022, after the visit to Taiwan by Nancy Pelosi, then Speaker of the US House of Representatives. But their geographic scope seems larger than that of previous exercises.
“They violate Taiwan’s air defense identification zone (ADIZ) and get even closer“, pointed out Evan Feigenbaum, of the Carnegie Foundation for International Peace, according to which this “will eventually force Taiwan to make decisions on the rules of engagement“.
Beijing now deploys military aircraft and ships around the island almost daily. Ben Lewis of the analysis site PLATracker also said he was concerned about the focus on Taiwan’s outlying islands, as well as the inclusion of the Chinese coast guard in Thursday’s exercises.
What next?
China could choose to extend this deployment, launch missiles near Taiwan, as after Nancy Pelosi’s visit, or even intensify its actions by imposing, for example, a real blockade around the island. James Char, however, considers these options unlikely.given the desire… to reduce tensions” demonstrated recently by Washington and Beijing.
For Evan Feigenbaum, exercises are not “a sign of impending war“.”Beijing has (…) a wide range of coercive and persuasive tools… In the short term, invasion is the least likely of these tools“, he told AFP. His goal is rather to “cause Taiwan to lose the will to resist“, and not risk a very costly invasion and occupation.
Beijing’s military intimidation of Taiwan is certain to continue, analysts say. Many pointed out that the “A” in the operation’s name – “Joint Sword-2024A” – suggested that other exercises could follow this year.
