by Claude Chendjou
PARIS (Reuters) – The main European stock exchanges are expected on Friday on a cautious note before the publication of inflation figures in the euro zone, the last major indicator of a week dominated by evaluations on the markets of the monetary policy of central banks , notably that of the American Federal Reserve (Fed).
According to the first available indications, the Parisian CAC 40 should lose 0.38% at the opening. The Dax in Frankfurt could fall 0.16%, while the FTSE 100 in London is expected to drop 0.07%. The EuroStoxx 50 index is expected to fall by 0.24%.
The market will become aware at 09:00 GMT of the final consumer price figures in the euro zone for the month of April. The Reuters consensus forecasts a slowdown to 0.6% over one month and stagnation to 2.4% over one year.
If these forecasts are correct, this would support the prospect of an easing of inflationary pressures on both sides of the Atlantic after data on consumer prices in the United States showed a deceleration in April to 0.3 % over one month.
The markets are currently counting on a rate cut by the European Central Bank (ECB) from June 6 and the start of monetary easing by the Fed in September, which has caused a sharp easing in the bond market and pushed stock indices in Europe and the United States to record levels.
For today’s session, however, caution is expected to dominate, with two Fed officials, including John Williams, vice chairman of the FOMC, the bank’s Monetary Policy Committee, saying Thursday that they have not yet openly changed of opinion on the timetable for rate cuts.
Isabel Schnabel, member of the ECB, for her part called for caution on a reduction in the bank’s rates beyond June, given the uncertainty surrounding the outlook, the daily Nikkei reported on Friday.
A WALL STREET
The New York Stock Exchange ended down Thursday, during a session marked by the historic level reached by the Dow Jones.
The Dow Jones index fell 0.10%, or 38.62 points, to 39,869.38 points.
The broader S&P-500 lost 11.05 points, or 0.21%, to 5,297.10 points.
The Nasdaq Composite fell 44.07 points (0.26%) to 16,698.32 points.
The Dow Jones reached a historic milestone by exceeding 40,000 points, far from the low experienced in October 2022, in a context of growth in the American economy despite the high interest rates put in place by the Fed to control inflation .
He finally saw his gains erased, along with those of the S&P-500 and the Nasdaq, at the end of a seesaw session.
On the value side, among the movements to note, the increase of almost 7% in Walmart thanks to the increase in its outlook and, conversely, the decline of 4.7% in Deere following a new revision to the drop in its annual profit forecast.
IN ASIA
On the Tokyo Stock Exchange, the Nikkei index fell by 0.34% to 38,787.38 points, in the wake of Wall Street. The broader Topix advanced 0.30% to 2,745.62 points.
Stocks linked to new technologies such as Tokyo Electron (-1.98%) and Shin-Etsu Chemical (-1.52%) ended in the red.
The MSCI index bringing together stocks from Asia and the Pacific (excluding Japan) lost 0.36% after rising to a two-year peak on Thursday. It is expected to gain 2% for the week as a whole, which would be its fourth consecutive weekly gain.
In China, the Shanghai SSE Composite lost 0.15% and the CSI 300 fell by 0.18%, in an indecisive session marked by mixed macroeconomic indicators.
Industrial production in China increased in April, by 6.7% on an annual basis after +4.5% in March, while retail sales, an important indicator of consumption, increased by 2.3% in April. , compared to 3.1% the previous month.
VALUES TO FOLLOW IN EUROPE:
EXCHANGES/RATES
The dollar gains 0.05% against a basket of reference currencies, but the note is on track to record its biggest weekly fall against the euro in two and a half months, signs of a slowdown in inflation in the United States weighing on the dollar index.
The euro lost 0.02%, to 1.0863 dollars, while the pound sterling traded at 1.2664 dollars (-0.02%).
The yield on ten-year US Treasury bonds is virtually unchanged at 4.373%, but remains near a low since early April.
The yield on the German Bund of the same maturity rose almost three basis points, to 2.467% after an increase of around two points the day before.
OIL
Oil prices rise on Friday amid signs of improving global demand on the back of strong economic indicators in China and the United States
Brent rose 0.61% to $83.78 per barrel and American light crude (West Texas Intermediate, WTI) rose 0.45% to $79.59.
Brent is on track to gain around 1% this week, which would be its first weekly rise in three weeks, while WTI could add 1.4% for the week as a whole.
*first estimate
(Writing by Claude Chendjou, edited by Kate Entringer)
