A disappointing ending – HBO made a documentary to reveal the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto, the creator of Bitcoin. However, the documentary has received strong criticism as the evidence provided is…inconsistent.
According to Glassnode’s latest weekly report, the bull run is still on as long as $47,500 is held. But it seems that a further fall towards $52,000 is possible. It’s the bulletin for October 11!
Bitcoin price fell below $59,000
Yesterday, the Bitcoin price a dropped below $59,000 following a CPI increase (American consumer price index). Concretely, this indicates that theinflation is persistent. This is clearly bad news, because the Fed could change its rate plan. After the collapse, buyers managed to bring BTC beyond $60,000the course therefore drops very slightly in 24 hours :
Bitcoin performance against different pairs. Source: Coincheckup
Over a week, the BTC remains more or less in balanceand it remains up by more than 7% in one month. For its part, the BTC/ETH pair drop of 2% in one weekbut it is up by more than 4% in one month.
Bitcoin price could slide towards $52,000
As explained in the introduction to this article, Glassnode analysts have identified the $47,500 as the critical threshold not to be broken to stay in a bull market. But for all that, the course of BTC fails to clearly return beyond $65,000and by dint of hesitation, the sellers could regain control and initiate a new wave of decline :
Analysts have placed the 3 important levels from an on-chain point of view on a graph representing the distribution of BTC purchase prices. The course is currently evolving below the average purchase price of STH (short-term holders) located around the 63 000 $. And if this on-chain level is not recovered, a “air hole” is present between $60,000 and $52,000. The price of Bitcoin has already returned twice around $52,000 since August. We should avoid coming back to it a third time. By testing this level, a drop towards $47,500 could happen. And the course would then not have no longer much room to stay in bull run according to the indicator shared in Glassnode’s latest weekly report.
BTC price bounces off 4H support at $59,000
The course is finally returned to support level at $59,000close to the bullish trendline present since the last low marked under the 50 000 $. For the moment, the course bounces back to $59,000but the institutional bias (EMA 9/EMA 18) bearish and the resistance at $61,500 could dismiss the course:
In case of rejectionbuyers will still have to defend the $59,000. To avoid this scenario, it will be necessary break $61,500. In this case, the price could return to the level of resistance at $63,500. The RSI is always stuck under resistanceand as long as this is the case, the momentum will remain fragile.
The price of Bitcoin once again fell below $60,000 after the CPI announcement in the United States. This drop shows that BTC is still fragile, and if the price does not manage to regain $63,000, a fall towards $52,000 cannot be ruled out. Will we have to wait for the US presidential elections to find Bitcoin attractive again?
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An oenologist by training, I traveled to different countries and discovered Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. I have trained in Technical Analysis in particular and I want to share my knowledge. I will continue to learn and share.
