The anecdote alone illustrates the dilemma in which Germany is plunged, between its crucial need for young workers to fill its labor shortage and its desire to implement an increasingly restrictive migration policy. In mid-September, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz was in Kenya to negotiate a labor migration deal with his counterpart, President William Ruto. As soon as the press conference was over, the latter congratulated himself during a television interview: “This contract will create 250,000 job opportunities for young people from Kenya to Germany. »
A figure immediately denied by the chancellery. “We have not issued any figures or quotas. All applicants must meet the criteria of the Skilled Worker Immigration Act”specifies on X (ex-Twitter) a spokesperson for the chancellor on the return plane. Too late. The information is circulating in the international press and the Federal Government must justify itself after a written question from a member of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party: it would only have been “agreed to establish a group of experts to develop a roadmap for the entry of skilled workers into Germany, while strengthening cooperation for the return of people without rights to Kenya”the Government cautiously responds.
However, because of its age pyramid, Germany desperately needs personnel. In 2023, 570,000 job advertisements could not be filled, which represents a shortfall of 49 billion euros for the economy. As elsewhere, this shortage primarily affects personal care and service professions. But companies are also increasingly faced with the difficulty of recruiting IT professionals, particularly in software development and data protection. According to the Bitkom union, which brings together more than 2,000 tech players, last year there were 149,000 vacant IT positions in German companies, compared to only 82,000 five years earlier. Around 663,000 IT experts will be missing by 2040. Several measures are envisaged, such as the promotion of IT careers among young girls, the reintegration of retirees or the use of artificial intelligence. But all this will remain insufficient and Bitkom estimates that more than 320,000 qualified workers should be recruited abroad. “These people are courted all over the world. For us to attract them, Germany must remain an open, tolerant and free society.”estimates Ralf Wintergerst, president of Bitkom since June 2023.
Because the whole problem is there: while the country seeks to conclude labor immigration agreements with states outside the European Union, in recent months the debate on the integration of foreigners has taken on an unprecedented scale in the public debate, this which confuses the Government’s messages between legal and illegal migration. The latter has in fact continued to harden its migratory strategy, pushed by the rise, on the one hand, of the extreme right and, on the other, of the new left-wing party Alliance Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW), which advocates a social policy while being hostile to immigration. During the three regional elections in Saxony, Thuringia and Brandenburg which took place in September, the AfD each time achieved a score of around 30% and placed a hitherto unprecedented number of deputies in local parliaments. For its part, the BSW totaled more than 10% of the votes, just a few months after its creation.
However, these regions of the former GDR are precisely those which are experiencing economic growth, with the arrival or expansion of several large national and international companies, such as Tesla in electric vehicles, TSMC, Infineon or Global Foundries in semiconductors, which employ up to eighty different nationalities. But very few of these employees plan to settle down permanently, even fewer since the last elections. “Without this workforce, it will be very difficult to operate these factories”warns Bitkom. And yet, a survey conducted in March 2024 by the German Center for Integration and Migration Research (DeZIM) revealed that almost one in ten people of foreign origin are seriously considering leaving Germany due to the success of the AfD. This figure even reaches 18.9% among people from the Middle East and North Africa.
Gwénaëlle Deboutte, in Berlin.
