For the third time in four years, the Euroleague playoffs include at least three quarter-final series requiring a match 5. This 2024 edition is no exception to the rule with Panathinaikos – Maccabi Tel-Aviv this Tuesday and Monaco – Fenerbahçe as well that Barcelona – Olympiakos this Wednesday. The three receiving teams were however trailing 2-1 and had to create the feat outside to take it away. What do the numbers say?
According to statistician Darius Garuolis, since the 2008–09 season, when best-of-five quarterfinal series were introduced, there have been 42 occasions where a team was down 2–1 in their series. The led team managed to come back and reach the Final Four on six occasions, or in 14% of cases.
Among these, we all remember Real Madrid last season, led 2-0 by Partizan Belgrade, and who managed the feat of reversing the trend even further to qualify for the Final Four and win the title.
Home advantage still essential
But, good news for Monaco, Panathinaikos and Barcelona: the six upsets in question always took place with home advantage in Match 5. And above all, in the 18 Match 5s that have been played since 2009, 100% ‘among them proved the home team right.
Will the scenario repeat itself? Olympiakos, Fenerbahçe and Maccabi Tel-Aviv have their destiny in their hands.
