In France, the month of May 2024 will begin in the rain, this Wednesday 1er May, following on from a particularly rainy month of April. So, when will spring finally set in?
Rain the next few days
First, let’s look at the short-term forecast. For the entire coming week, showers are forecast every day over the majority of France. Temperatures will be similar to current ones until this weekend. They should then increase to exceed 20°C almost everywhere on Monday afternoon, according to weather models.
According to trends, the first part of the following week, that of Monday May 6, should still be disrupted, indicates Météo France. We will therefore have to wait a little longer to experience spring.
Improvement mid-next week
A time “mostly dry and fairly sunny should finally set in” in the middle of next week, according to trends synthesized by Météo France.
The European ECMWF model is currently counting on Wednesday May 8 for the end of the majority of precipitation. Overall, the week of May 6 to 12 should be marked by a deficit of rain compared to normal, according to weekly trends estimated by the European model:
Temperatures should also be “slightly above seasonal averages” the week of May 6 to 12, according to trends reported by Météo France. The trends reported by ECMWF support this idea:
Will this weather continue? Concerning precipitation, the ECMWF model does not comment on the following weeks. Regarding temperatures, the week of May 13 could be very slightly warmer than normal. These trends still need to be consolidated.
For the coming months, the preferred hot scenario
In its three-month forecast published at the end of April, Météo France suggests that“a warmer than normal scenario is most likely for France” from the beginning of May to the end of July. Météo France, however, does not comment on precipitation.
For its part, the European Copernicus program forecasts a level of precipitation generally below normal, even if the anomaly would not be very marked.
