Hassan Nasrallah killed by Israel: what could be the consequences?

The Israeli army killed Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and other members of his high command in an airstrike on September 27.

The IDF assures that it “still has a way to go” in its fight against the Lebanese Islamist organization.

Hezbollah and its supporters, including Iran, promise that the line advocated by Hassan Nasrallah will continue despite his death.

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Lebanon: fear of a generalized war between Israel and Hezbollah

The death of Hassan Nasrallah, made official on Saturday by the Israeli army and Hezbollah a few hours later, marks a decisive step in the conflict between Israel and the Lebanese Shiite formation. However, it does not sign the end, as the IDF pointed out, nor the extinction of Hezbollah.

The Israeli strike, fatal to the most powerful man in Lebanon and other senior leaders of the movement, was followed by other air raids on Lebanon, proof that the fight is not over for the IDF. Saturday, late afternoon, after the destruction of “140 Hezbollah targets”, “including rocket launchers targeting Israeli civilians, buildings in which weapons were stored (…) and other terrorist infrastructure sites”the Israeli army announced a new strike on the stronghold of the Lebanese armed Islamist movement in Beirut. A warehouse near Beirut airport was targeted.

For Israel, “the operation continues”

“The operation continues”assured the French-speaking spokesperson for the Israeli army on LCI. “We are surprised by the gigantic quantity of missiles, particularly surface-to-air, extremely powerful, which were stored in the basements of destroyed buildings in South Beirut (…). There, but also in the Bekaa Valley, there are thousands of missiles stored, strategic weapons, which must absolutely be destroyed“, continues Colonel Olivier Rafowicz. The same seems to go for the roads, also targeted and https://twitter.com/Tsahal_IDF/status/1840049904888250799 and eastern components towards Lebanon.

“The operation continues,” assures Olivier Rafowicz, the IDF spokesperson, on LCISource : TF1 Info

Logo lecture

Israel, which explains that it is acting to stop the shooting towards the north of its territory, bordering southern Lebanon, and thus allow the return of tens of thousands of inhabitants forced to flee, should therefore continue its military maneuvers to achieve its objective neutralization of Hezbollah. “We will continue our operations…until all our civilians can return home safely“, https://twitter.com/IDF/status/1839921872193929385

Does Hezbollah still have the capacity to fight back?

For its part, Hezbollah, deprived of its leader and several of its most senior executives, will try to reorganize itself. THE Guardian and other media mention the possibility of Hashem Safieddine, second in command of the Lebanese Shiite militia and who would have been spared by Friday’s air attack, to succeed Nasrallah. Cousin of the late leader, religious like him, he was in particular responsible for the political affairs of Hezbollah. The fact remains that after this very hard blow, which comes in the wake of the spectacular attacks on pagers and walkie-talkies, the Shiite movement’s capacity to respond arises.

“Neither the 150,000 missiles and rockets it holds, nor the tens of thousands of armed men who form the militia, however, disappeared in the snap of a finger”warns The Orient By Day (new window). “Even if it seems more complicated every day, we cannot exclude the fact that Hezbollah still has the means to respond to its adversary and wage a total and longer-lasting war,” notes the Lebanese daily which questions Iran’s reaction. And above all its scale.

Iran’s support

Historical support of the Lebanese organization, which it helped create in 1982 and which it has financed since, Iran, Israel’s sworn enemy, remains confident in its ability to continue Nasrallah’s action. “The glorious line of the leader of the resistance, Hassan Nasrallah, will continue and his sacred goal will be achieved with the liberation of Quds (Jerusalem)If God wills”declared Saturday the spokesperson for the Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Nasser Kanani, in a message published on X while Vice-President Mohammad Reza Aref brandished the threat against the Hebrew state. “We warn the leaders of the occupation regime that the unjust bloodshed, especially that of Hezbollah Secretary General Martyr Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, will lead to their destruction“, he said, quoted by the Iranian news agency Isna.

  • Lebanese militant group leader Hassan Nasrallah addressing the nation on September 19, 2024.

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For his part, Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei asked “all Muslims to proudly stand alongside the Lebanese people and Hezbollah with their resources and help them confront Israel“.

At war with Israel in Gaza and a member of the alliance Iran calls“axis of resistance” with Hezbollah and the Houthis, the Palestinian Islamist movement Hamas denounced “a cowardly terrorist act”. The assassination of the Lebanese leader “will strengthen our resolve”, for their part affirmed the Yemeni rebels and will lead “la destruction” of Israel, said Iran’s First Vice President, Mohammad Reza Aref, whose country declared five days of mourning.

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While calls for de-escalation, whether from the UN or European chancelleries, do not seem to be heeded, every day brings the region closer to total conflagration, with – always – the risk of an Israeli ground operation. and uncertainty over Iran’s reaction.


Anthony TALLIEU

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