Heat-related deaths are on the rise in the United States. But how bad will it be in 20, 30, or 40 years? Scientists now have an idea.
Currently, more than 8,000 deaths per year in the United States are estimated to be linked to extreme temperatures, hot or cold. Over the next few decades, that number could double or even triple, largely due to heat, researchers reported Sept. 20. JAMA Open Network.
“As the climate warms, the frequency, duration and intensity of heat waves are increasing. It is critical to understand how these events impact our health,” says Sameed Khatana, a cardiologist at the University of Pennsylvania.. Our bodies are able to withstand stifling temperatures, but as temperatures rise, this ability is pushed to its limit (SN: 06/21/24).
Khatana and his colleagues studied two hypothetical futures: one with a lower increase in greenhouse gas emissions, and one with a higher increase in emissions (SN: 01/07/20). First, using the monthly number of extreme temperature days and the monthly number of deaths from 2008 to 2019, the researchers estimated the number of deaths now associated with extreme temperatures. Using previously developed projections of what temperatures and population sizes will be like in several decades, the team then estimated the number of deaths associated with extreme temperatures in the mid-21st century for each hypothetical future.
By 2036 to 2065, the annual number of deaths could double in a future with lower emissions growth, or triple in a future with higher emissions growth, the team found.
The largest increase in deaths was seen among older adults, non-Hispanic black adults, Hispanic adults and adults living in urban areas, the researchers note (SN: 08/04/24). This could be due to the increasing number of people in these populations, but Khatana says that “neighborhoods with more minority residents have lower tree coverage and access to air conditioning on average, which impacts the temperatures people experience.”
