The year 2023 marked a big setback for real estate in Belgium. In particular, the height of mortgage loans and the sharp increase in the price of materials. And after this cold snap, felt particularly in 2023 on the number of transactions (approximately -15% for the whole country), the first quarter of 2024 did not really restart the machine, as indicated by the quarterly barometer of the Federation of Notaries (Fednot).
Sales in sharp decline in Flanders
In the first quarter of 2024, there were still, in fact, 7.4% fewer sales in our country compared to the first quarter of 2023. If the drop in transactions is general, it is less strong in Wallonia and Brussels, respectively at -6.5% and -0.8%. During this first quarter, the figures were therefore dragged down by Flanders, which showed a slowdown of 8.8% – even though this region represents 60% of the Belgian market share (compared to 7% for Brussels and 33% for the Wallonia). In Wallonia, all provinces saw their activity weaken compared to the first quarter of 2023, but Walloon Brabant, with a decline of 1.1%, is the one showing the most moderate drop in transactions.
This new slowdown in activity is not accompanied, however, by an overall drop in (real estate) prices. The average price of a house and an apartment even increased slightly compared to the annual average for 2023, recording an increase of 1.7% (houses) and 1.3% (apartments) respectively. “Taking into account inflation, prices (net, Editor’s note) are however decreasing: -0.6% for a house and -1% for an apartment”however, notes Fednot.
Although it is not easy to draw major lessons from such a short period, two interesting elements seem to emerge.
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One, house prices are falling in Brussels (by more than 3%), in Walloon Brabant (drop of almost 3%) and in the province of Luxembourg (largest fall, more than 4% drop) . It is, on the other hand, increasing in all Flemish provinces.
Two, the price of apartments is falling in a majority of Belgian provinces, a decline which is general and quite marked in Wallonia, with the biggest drops recorded in the south of the country (Namur and Luxembourg).
The price of new apartments rising sharply in Brussels
A word, to conclude, on new apartments. In this area, Flanders clearly dominates the market: in the first quarter of 2024, out of 100 new apartments sold, 76 were located in Flanders, 20 in Wallonia and 4 in Brussels.
The number of single-person households is shaking up the real estate market in Brussels (Infographics)
In Belgium, the average price of a new apartment was 326,896 euros in the first quarter of 2024, or 0.5% more than in 2023. But notaries note that prices are clearly increasing in the capital: “In Brussels, buyers paid on average 385,079 euros for a new apartment at the start of the year, a price increase of 13.1% compared to 2023”, a rather worrying increase even if it undoubtedly concerns a small number of transactions. A trend that will however need to be kept an eye on to see if it is confirmed in the long term.
