Lhe very first lesson of this first round of early legislative elections is easy to learn. Like a King Midas in reverse, by taking the perilous and solitary decision to dissolve the National Assembly on June 9, Emmanuel Macron transformed a relative majority into an absolute minority. And he will spend the last three years of his term in office cohabiting with a Prime Minister who, given the results, is more likely to come from the National Rally, Jordan Bardella, than from the New Popular Front. Sacrificed on the evening of calamitous European elections for his camp, Gabriel Attal will therefore have remained only five months at Matignon.
Screwed in his blind certainties, Emmanuel Macron assured that the polls would be wrong about the European elections, we saw the result. Isolated at the Élysée with a handful of advisors who have never seen a voter in their lives, he said he was once again convinced that, faced with the risk of chaos and undoubtedly one month before the Olympic Games, the intelligence of his fellow citizens would give him oxygen for the end of his lease. Failed again. The Macronist bloc certainly did better than in the Europeans but finished on the third step of the podium, far from the RN and the union of the left.
The RN also benefits from participation
Turnout, up sharply thanks to voters who turned out and those who left a proxy (more than 2 million), therefore benefited the former majority, but too bad for those who thought that the civic surge would only occur among the opponents of the extreme right. The Le Pen party also benefits, and not just a little, from this renewed appetite for the voting booth. On June 9, the Bardella list had totaled more than 7.76 million votes. On June 30, 11.5 million ballots brought the RN to the top of the vote. That’s also 4 million more votes than Marine Le Pen in the second round of the 2022 presidential election. The momentum is on the RN’s side. Undeniably. For the long term. Collateral Victim, Reconquest!, by Éric Zemmour, who will have time to write a new book.
The Le Pen party also benefits, and not just a little, from this renewed appetite for voting.
Irreducible adversaries on the ground, Insoumis and lepénistes agree on one point: Emmanuel Macron suffered a heavy defeat and, unlike Jacques Chirac who, too, had completely missed his challenge of dissolution, he will not have the possibility of make up for it in 2027. A swan song for a President who wanted to dynamite the old political parties and had his electoral grenade explode in his hands. His last three years will be weighed down by the heavyweights of Macronie (Édouard Philippe, Gérald Darmanin or Gabriel Attal) who have no interest in staying at his side and must prepare for the future from this Monday.
Attal clearer than Macron
Now it’s time for the second round. Surrounded by the number 2 of the Insoumis, Manuel Bompard, and the MEP Rima Hassan in a Palestinian keffiyeh (quite symbolic), Jean-Luc Mélenchon assured that his candidates who came in third place would withdraw if the RN is in the lead. The other left-wing parties have also called for a republican withdrawal, including representatives of the left irreconcilable with LFI like Bernard Cazeneuve. Because, this Sunday evening, the RN’s domination is no longer virtual, it is real. It is quantified.
The Republicans (historical channel) remain on a neither-nor but the head of the list for the European elections, François-Xavier Bellamy, designates “the extreme left as the main danger”. Possible preamble to a rallying to the RN, according to the former Chirac minister Dominique Bussereau.
The most anticipated declaration was of course that of Emmanuel Macron who caused a sensation by going to vote in Le Touquet in “Top Gun” outfit (jacket, cap and dark glasses) and calling for “a large gathering clearly democratic and republican” but his future ex-Prime Minister Gabriel Attal was clearer by affirming that “not a single vote should go to the RN and its disastrous project”. Minister Roland Lescure, a member of the left wing of Renaissance, was also not choosy between LFI and the rest of the New Popular Front. In the Somme, the Macronist candidate even goes so far as to withdraw in favor of François Ruffin, it is true that she is more presentable since her break with Jean-Luc Mélenchon.
Clear proof that instructions from above will count for little for candidates in the process of demacronization. On paper, the triangular record could be broken with more than 300. We will have to wait until Tuesday, 6 p.m., to know the exact number and verify the solidity of the dam planned by the Macronists.
