The tension is building! Only a few days left until the start of the Tour de France in Florence. How fit are the protagonists for the battle for yellow, which will probably begin on stage one? In part five of the ‘Fab Four’ form barometer, Bernd Landwehr, editor-in-chief of Cyclingmagazinethe four top favorites before it starts.
What can fans and spectators expect from defending champion Jonas Vingegaard, challenger Tadej Pogacar, debutant Remco Evenepoel and veteran Primoz Roglic?
In the columns, cycling expert and journalist Bernd Landwehr analyses the preparation, classifies the performances and thus creates a “Tour barometer of the Fab Four”.
Here the first, second, third and fourth Column about the Fab Four with all the information.
Episode 5: Let’s go – this is how the Fab Four start the Tour de France 2024
Jonas Vingegaard – Form question mark
27 years / Team Visma | Lease a Bike / Grand Tour victories: 2 x Tour / Tour participations: 3
The start of the Tour de France is Jonas Vingegaard’s comeback since his serious fall at the Tour of the Basque Country in April. Exactly 86 days have passed since the accident in which the Tour defending champion broke his collarbone and ribs and suffered a pneumothorax.
How good is the form of the double Tour winner? The race will answer this question. Of course, his team Visma | Lease a Bike would not have nominated the Dane for the most important race of the year if there was a risk that he would be left behind. But whether Vingegaard can actually fight for the overall victory is something that no one knows for sure. The performance data from training has been analyzed in detail and shows how strong he is compared to last year. But getting back into racing after a long break from training is not an easy thing. Especially not in the Tour de France – the most stressful and hectic race in the world.
Vingegaard will certainly be particularly well protected by his team on the first few days – as far as that is possible in the Tour. It remains to be seen whether he can stay safe on the first tricky stages. The first clear indication of his mountain form will be seen on the fourth stage – then he will go over the Alpine giant Col du Galibier!
Whether Vingegaard will become a little stronger than his competitors during the Tour, or whether he will perhaps lack consistency due to the disrupted preparation, will probably only become clear in week three.
His team has made a lot of effort to assign the role of favourite to the competition. Whether this was a tactic or realism remains to be seen. Based on recent impressions, Vingegaard should not be underestimated and should definitely be placed high on the list of favourites
Tadej Pogacar – Revenge & Double
25 years / UAE Team Emirates / Grand Tour victories: 2 x Tour, 1 x Giro / Tour participations: 4
He won the Giro d’Italia with ease, and now he wants to win the Tour. Will he really be the first rider since Marco Pantani in 1998 to win the Giro and the Tour in one year? Several people have tried in the meantime, but all attempts failed. The double was considered almost impossible. But now comes Pogacar, perhaps the greatest cycling talent of all time. His team UAE came up with a plan in the winter and they have been consistently following through with it so far.
Strade Bianche, Milan-Sanremo, Tour of Catalonia, Liège-Bastogne-Liège and Giro d’Italia – Pogacar has competed in these five races this year and, apart from Milan-Sanremo (third place), he has won all of them. Pogacar comes to the second Grand Tour of the year with only 31 days of racing under his belt – that’s just five more days of racing than Jonas Vingegaard had in his victories in the past two years before the start of the Tour.
The victory at the Giro has certainly given Pogacar confidence and taken some of the pressure off. But the Tour of Italy has certainly taken its toll – physically and mentally. How well he copes with the double burden will be shown in the race – but the Slovenian goes into this Tour de France as the top favorite for overall victory. After two defeats against Jonas Vingegaard, he now wants to get yellow again and take revenge.
Team UAE is sending an extremely strong team to the Tour. Road riders like Nils Politt and Pavel Sivakov, as well as excellent climbers like Adam Yates and Joao Almeida. The currently strongest rider has the strongest team at his side – the role of favorite is clear.
Primoz Roglic – completing the career plan
34 years / Bora-hansgrohe / Grand Tour victories: 3 x Vuelta, 1 x Giro / Tour participations: 5
Giro d’Italia, the Vuelta a España, monuments, Olympic gold – Primoz Roglic has won almost everything in his career. But he has not yet achieved one major goal – victory in the Tour de France. Roglic has switched to the Bora-hansgrohe team to take advantage of his last chance to win the Tour – this would probably not have been possible alongside Jonas Vingegaard. He is fully focused on the Tour, the entire team is geared towards him. The 34-year-old will probably not get many more chances – now or never?
Primoz Roglic’s year was not ideal. At the beginning of the year he didn’t really get going. It obviously took him a while to find his feet in the new environment and really get going. Then he fell during the Tour of the Basque Country. It wasn’t as bad as Vingegaard and Evenepoel, but he was also set back.
The Critérium du Dauphiné was a test run for the Tour de France for the entire Bora team. Roglic took the overall victory and gained confidence. But he was not so confident that he should be made the yellow favorite on a par with Pogacar. Roglic is going to the Tour as a challenger – as a candidate for a place on the podium. For his team, which will then compete as “Red Bull-Bora-hansgrohe”, a podium would be a success. But for Roglic it’s all about winning. He’s already had a podium finish in the Tour – now he’s finally looking to win.
His team is very strong, on every terrain – but so is the competition. When he’s in top form, he might be able to stand up to Pogacar and Vingegaard, but delivering a consistently flawless race at the top level over three weeks will be a huge challenge. But that’s exactly what he needs if he wants to challenge Pogacar & Co.
Remco Evenepoel – Premiere
24 years / Soudal-Quick Step / Grand Tour victories: 1 x Vuelta / Tour participations: 0
The Belgian prodigy is starting his first Tour de France. Countless fans are excited to see how well Remco Evenepoel will do in this Tour de France. He also did not have the best preparation, was involved in the crash at the Tour of the Basque Country and broke his collarbone and shoulder blade. At the Critérium du Dauphiné, he initially won the individual time trial with ease, but then fell again and was not at the level of the top riders around winner Primoz Roglic during the mountain stages.
Evenepoel has won the Vuelta, was world champion and has achieved several monument victories – but he is still one of the riders fighting for the white jersey of the best young rider in the Tour. It is his first Tour de France, and he is certainly highly motivated, but the 24-year-old will probably have a few more chances in the biggest race in the world in the future.
Evenepoel is not going into the Tour de France as the favorite for a podium finish. He wants to get to know the race, gain important knowledge for the future and return soon to fight for yellow. In his Belgian homeland, every one of his races is closely followed and every one of his statements and performances is analyzed. He does not yet seem to be able to keep up with Pogacar and Vingegaard, and Roglic also seems to be stronger. One should not expect a huge leap in performance between the Dauphiné and the Tour. But we will have to wait and see how the Belgian does.
Remco Evenepoel is a star in Belgium. He is considered a child prodigy and “the next Eddy Merckx,” who is expected to bring Belgium its next Tour triumph. Expectations are not that high for his debut, partly because of the rather weak Dauphiné. Perhaps that will do him good for his debut.
Fab Four – Part Four
Fab Four – Part Three
Fab Four – Part Two
Fab Four – Part One
Photos: © A.S.O./Pauline Ballet, Stefan Rachow
