Brilliant winner of Manchester City (4-2), PSG took a big step towards qualifying for the final phase of the Champions League. But a bad alignment of the planets on the last day could dampen Parisian hopes.
Don't shake. If there was relief in the Parisian ranks this Wednesday after PSG's magnificent victory against Manchester City at the cost of an XXL comeback (from 0-2 to 4-2), qualification for the play-offs of the phase Champions League final is far from certain for Luis Enrique's men. And any relaxation in the week which will lead them to January 29 and this final match in Stuttgart could be paid for in cash.
Because in the event of PSG's defeat in Germany, several scenarios could take the Ile-de-France club into the abyss of European football, branding the Parisian coat of arms with an infamous elimination in the league phase. Paris would then find itself fighting with five teams for the last three qualifying places: Benfica, Sporting CP, Manchester City, Dinamo Zagreb and Shakhtar Donetsk. If three of them were to achieve sufficient results to finish ahead of the Parisians in the standings, PSG's adventure in the Champions League would be over.
The program of PSG and its direct competitors
- Stuttgart-PSG
- Manchester City-Club Bruges
- Juventus-Benfica
- Dinamo Zagreb-AC Milan
- Borussia Dortmund-Shakhtar Donetsk
- Sporting CP-Bologna
The conditions that would plague PSG
To finish in front of PSG if he loses in Stuttgarteach club must fulfill its own conditions, of which here is the list:
-Manchester City ahead of PSG if…
- He wins against Club Bruges
Benfica ahead of PSG if…
- He doesn't lose on Juve's pitch
- He lost by a smaller margin than PSG's defeat in Stuttgart
- He lost by a margin equal to that of PSG's defeat in Stuttgart without the Parisians scoring at least 4 more goals on the last day
Dinamo Zagreb ahead of PSG if…
- He wins against AC Milan
Shakhtar Donetsk ahead of PSG if…
- He won on the pitch of Borussia Dortmund by a margin large enough to overcome his poor goal difference (-8 against +2 for PSG)
Sporting CP ahead of PSG if…
- He does not lose against Bologna
- He lost by a narrower margin of two goals than that of PSG's defeat in Stuttgart
- He lost by a narrower margin of one goal than that of PSG's defeat in Stuttgart without the Parisians scoring at least 2 more goals on the last day
Disaster scenarios
To arrive at the Death Star alignment, it is therefore enough for PSG to lose and for three of these five teams to meet the conditions described. For example, if Manchester City wins against Bruges and Sporting CP and Benfica draw against Bologna and Turin respectively, PSG will say goodbye to their European dreams. Likewise, if City and Dinamo Zagreb win and Benfica loses 1-0 at Juve without PSG scoring 4 goals in their defeat in Stuttgart, mass will also be said.
As tortuous as it may be, the path to nightmare does indeed exist for Parisians. Conclusion: it is better not to tempt the devil and avoid losing in Stuttgart.
France
