This may already be the match of the year for PSG. With 7 points on the clock in the Champions League, the capital club is preparing to host Manchester City this Wednesday evening (9 p.m.) before traveling to Stuttgart on January 29, for what looks like the longest week important part of the season. In theory, three additional points will be enough to qualify for the play-offs. But the vagaries of the competition could well push PSG to surpass themselves a little more.
The maneuvering distance of Luis Enrique's men is not great. Two defeats and it's the door from the first phase for Paris, something unheard of at the club under the QSI era. In the other direction, two successes over the last two days would easily validate PSG's qualification. With 13 points, Paris could even hope to be among the top seeds in the play-offs, and host the Parc des Princes in the return match. With a draw and a victory, no matter in which order, PSG would also be assured of qualification.
A victory against City would make things easier
If the Parisians were to win against Manchester City this evening, they would make their task much easier in Germany. While Opta affirmed at the start of the season that 10 points ensured a 99% chance of qualifying for the C1 play-offs, could Paris be concerned by this small remaining percentage point? Possible but quite unlikely.
In the event of a victory against the Skyblues, a simple draw against Stuttgart would allow the Parisians to definitively validate their qualification for the play-offs with eleven points. A defeat could even be enough if certain conditions are met in other matches, notably through the race for goal average.
-Beware of defeat against the Skyblues
On the other hand, in the event of another disappointment against Manchester City this evening, the Rouge et Bleu would be forced to win in Stuttgart on the last day to hope to qualify, and would not even have their destiny in their hands. The result of a scenario with six equations could indeed place them on the bench of the eliminated, even in the event of success in Germany:
- A victory for Dinamo Zagreb against Arsenal or AC Milan
- No defeats for Celtic against Young Boys and Aston Villa
- A victory for Real Madrid against Salzburg or Brest
- A draw for Feyenoord against Bayern Munich or Lille
- A draw for Sporting Portugal against Leipzig or Bologna
- A draw between Benfica and Juventus
In the event of a draw against Manchester City and Stuttgart, PSG would have a tiny chance of qualifying for the play-offs with 9 points. But for that to happen he would need quite a combination of circumstances, which would amount to a miracle. Manchester City should, for example, lose by five goals at home against Bruges on the final day, or Real Madrid fall against Salzburg and Brest to allow the Parisians to qualify.
In short, the objective will be to win this evening for Paris to ensure a more peaceful end to the league phase. A completely different result will prompt us to take out the calculators for the 18-match multiplex, scheduled for Wednesday, January 29.
