We saw the Celtics stumble a bit over the course of December, ending the month with an 8-6 record. They finished off 2024 with a bang, though, destroying the Raptors with their largest win of the season, a whopping 54-point victory. Tonight, they play their first game of the new year, a battle against the Minnesota Timberwolves who are led by their young star, Anthony Edwards. Minnesota currently holds the 8th seed in the West, facing a so-far disappointing season given that they were the 3rd seed and made it all the way to the Western Conference Finals last year.
Following their success, they made an unexpected move, trading away their longest-tenured player, Karl Anthony Towns, to the Knicks for Julius Randle and Donte DiVincenzo. Minnesota is still trying to work out the kinks following the trade, but they looked like they might have been finding some rhythm recently. They were on a 3-game winning streak before dropping a hard-fought game to the Oklahoma City Thunder on the last day of 2024 off of an MVP-level performance from Shai Gilgeous Alexander. Tonight, they’ll be hungry to get back on track against our Celtics.
How do the Celtics approach balance their offensive attack?
While his place in history is highly debated, there is no taking away Rudy Gobert’s 4 Defensive Player of the Year awards and his 7 All-Defensive team selections which came as a result of his elite shot-blocking. Across his 12-year career, he averages over 2 blocks per game, although this year he’s averaging 1.4 BPG, his fewest since his rookie year. That doesn’t mean he’s any less of a threat in the paint. The Celtics will need to try to pull Gobert to the perimeter as much as possible if they want to open up driving lanes.
That’s usually easier when you have stretch-bigs like Al Horford and Kristaps Porzingis. Unfortunately for the Celtics, Porzingis will miss his 4th consecutive game as he’s been ruled out for tonight. While Al still may warrant some attention, he’ll need to rediscover his rhythm from range as well. Across the last two games, Horford has made 1 measly three out his 16 attempts. That won’t cut it against a team like Minnesota, especially with him being the only floor-spacing big available for Boston tonight.
To add insult to injury (or maybe injury to insult?) Jaylen Brown has been ruled out for the game due to a shoulder injury. Jaylen is arguably the Celtics’ best in-and-out player, maybe second only to Jayson Tatum. Brown is relentless when he attacks the rim, and is always a threat from deep too, both of which Boston will sorely miss tonight. In their previous matchup, the Celtics scored just 30 of their 107 points in the paint while Jaylen poured on 7 threes in 10 attempts. With him and Kristaps absent, the Celtics may have a tough time varying their attack.
Who takes the assignment of guarding Anthony Edwards?
Not only do the Celtics suffer from losing Jaylen on offense, they also lose out on their best defender for Minnesota’s star player. In the previous matchup, Brown guarded Edwards for over 7 minutes of game time, the most on the team by far. Jaylen held Ant to just 3 points, 4 assists, and 2 turnovers on 1/4 shooting. The next three most common defenders were Jrue Holiday, Jayson Tatum, and Derrick White, who combined to guard Edwards for just under 7 minutes. Together, they held Ant to 9 points and 1 assist on 3/13 shooting.
With fewer elite defenders, it becomes easier to hunt matchups, though. Ant found the most success when he was defended by either Al Horford or Xavier Tillman, scoring 15 points on 6/10 shooting. In all likelihood, he’ll be looking to attack Boston’s big men again tonight. The Celtics will have to lock in defensively, and we’ll see if they continue to switch everything with Jaylen out of the lineup.
Will Boston concede the paint defensively?
Minnesota has been having a great year from behind the arc, shooting 37.2% from three as a team, currently ranked 9th in the league. They do it on high-volume too, averaging 40 3PA per game, ranked 6th in the league. That’s a 22.4% increase from where they were last year. On the flip side, they average 45.9 2PA per game this season, ranked 28th in the league. With almost half of the Timberwolves’ shot attempts coming from behind the arc, we may see the Celtics hunker down on the perimeter and push the Wolves to the paint. With Kristaps absent tonight, that may become more enticing for Minnesota to attack as well, though the Celtics will need someone to step up to at least challenge the shots when the Wolves do enter the paint.
