BOSTON — Listen to the wrong fan this season — at a bar, on the walk from the parking lot to the United Center or in the grisly expanse of social media — and you might get the sense the NBA is dying.
The main source of this panic is simple. Ratings are down. Fewer fans are tuning in to games on television. And never mind that gate revenue and attendance remain steady — this loss of national viewership has thrown up red flags for fans and executives across the league.
The underlying fear behind the panic is more intense, more intimate: a sense that basketball itself is devolving into something lesser and unwanted.
Every fan has a different idea about the source of both problems. There are too many games. The games are too long. There isn’t enough contact. Too many teams get into the playoffs.
But many of those arguments flow into one central fixation: 3-pointers have gotten out of hand.
As two of the league’s top contributors to 3-point oversaturation squared off Thursday night at TD Garden, it raised a fair question: Are teams such as the Chicago Bulls and Boston Celtics ruining basketball?
The answer is more complicated than a straightforward yes or no.
“It’s not like we don’t respect the game,” Bulls guard Zach LaVine said. “We just have to play our generation of basketball.”
It’s no secret that NBA teams have finally, fully adapted to the analytical reality of 3-point shooting. But it’s still hard to grapple with the astronomic nature of the increase.
A decade ago, the Houston Rockets led the league with 32.7 attempts per game. This season, the Toronto Raptors average the same number of attempts — and they rank second-to-last.
For some old-school fans, this signals the end of “good” basketball. Each week, a new clip goes viral of NBA players launching 3-pointers in lazy succession on a broken play in the third quarter of a forgettable game.
Critics of this new style rarely highlight the positive qualities of a high-volume 3-point offense — the pinball style of passing, the open flow of the game in transition and the fluid communication required to defend the new spaced-out style. This is the style of play that younger players such as Lonzo Ball were raised to admire.
“I was taught run-and-gun my whole life,” Ball said. “I like the way the game is going, to be honest.”
The Celtics are averaging a league-high 51.1 attempts behind the arc, and the Bulls are next with 43.7. Both teams shoot over 37% from 3-point range, which counters the criticism that teams are simply launching a ton of long-range attempts in the hope that something hits.
To players such as LaVine, it’s no surprise the rest of the league is trying to catch up. After all, it’s a simple mathematical advantage.
“It’s a copycat league,” LaVine said. “Once people start playing the numbers, obviously three is more than two. It’s just a different style of play.
“Some teams are really good at it — like Boston, who has shown that they can win at the highest level by doing it. Some people are just trying to keep up. We’re trying to find our identity with what works for us.”
Imitation is always an issue in the NBA. But Bulls coach Billy Donovan argued the Celtics offense is inimitable for most rosters — not due to their volume of 3-pointers but how they produce them.
The Celtics roster is uniquely positioned to take long-range shots. Jayson Tatum is one of the best 3-point shooters in the league, but this is a roster-wide strength. All five starters are automatic behind the arc. Both of Boston’s centers can pop out on any play. Eight players are making at least a third of their 3s.
And because of this consistency, the Celtics don’t need to create open 3s through passing or play construction. They can simply shoot — anytime, anywhere.
“They have guys that can shoot over you,” Donovan said. “And they’re elite at it.”
Most teams simply aren’t built this way. For that reason, Donovan believes it’s a fool’s errand to pursue playing the same way as the Celtics.
Personnel always has been a key factor for Donovan when it comes to 3-point shooting. Last season the Bulls barely shot them — not because Donovan was opposed to it but because high-volume shooting behind the arc didn’t make sense with the available personnel.
This season a few key departures — including DeMar DeRozan and Andre Drummond — transformed the Bulls into a 3-point juggernaut.
The Bulls aren’t getting their 3s the same way as the Celtics. They create shooting opportunities in transition and off catch-and-shoot opportunities. But similar to Boston, their transformation has relied on the shooting versatility of their big men — primarily Nikola Vučević, who has made the third-most 3-pointers on the team.
No position has been more transformed by this spaced-out era of basketball than center — and Vučević is a prime example of how the frontcourt game has changed in the last decade.
As a rookie, Vučević rarely even looked at the 3-point line. He attempted a total of 26 3s in his first five seasons, going two full seasons without a single make.
But after the 2015-16 season, Vučević could feel the game shifting around him. The Orlando Magic encouraged him to build more of an outside shot, and he saw the same trend in Europe during international duty.
When his 3-point shot finally began to click, everything else came together for Vučević. He earned his first All-Star selection in 2019, the same season he averaged over 35% behind the arc. Ever since, the evolution of Vučević’s accuracy — 47.5% on 4.6 attempts per game this season — has been integral to his role.
The way Vučević operates in the Bulls offense is almost unrecognizable from his early years. He doesn’t post up as much and often initiates plays outside the arc. This requires a faster, less physical style — one that often plays to Vučević’s strengths, especially in more recent seasons.
But it’s not the version of the game Vučević expected to play when he was drafted in 2011.
“It’s been different, but this is the way it is,” he said. “The game is going to evolve. The game is going to change. And as a player, you have to adjust.
“You can’t be talking like, ‘Oh, well, 10 years ago, I was shooting all these main ranges and it was great, it was my bread and butter.’ Teams don’t want to do that anymore. You have to accept the way the game’s gone and adapt.”
Vučević doesn’t view his style as a linear progression. Teams jump on trends and attempt to replicate winning systems. And often they fail. The league is also prone to overcorrections in either direction.
The pendulum might have swung strongly in favor of high-volume 3-point shooting, Vučević said, but this season isn’t necessarily definitive for the NBA’s future.
“Is it better or worse?” he said with a shrug. “Time will tell. We’ll see.”
Players are no stranger to nostalgia — especially veterans. Vučević grew up idolizing the big men of central Europe. LaVine was an acolyte of Kobe Bryant’s midrange game. They remember a slower game that required more footwork, an extra touch inside the arc and a special knack to wiggle free from tight coverage.
And even if that style isn’t coming back, a love for that version remains.
“It’s a different time,” LaVine said. “I respect it. I come from watching my favorite players operate in the midrange and playing through the triangle system, where it’s pass, pass, shot.
“It doesn’t take as much effort to take a 3 — especially if it’s like a deep 3 or catch-and-shoot. It takes a little bit of the skill out of the game. But that’s the way that we have to play right now.”
At the same time, most players laugh at the idea that the NBA is dropping in popularity because of a change in style. The league is on track to make historic money with its new broadcast deals, contracts are soaring with each new collective bargaining agreement and markets are beginning to clamor for another wave of expansion.
Even if TV ratings are down, LaVine doesn’t think players have anything to worry about. As long as the 3s keep falling, the Bulls will keep taking them.
“People are always going to talk about something,” LaVine said. “Regardless if it’s you, your team, somebody else, their parlay — everything is going to be talked about. It’s our job to go out here and play our game.”
Originally Published: December 19, 2024 at 1:36 PM CST
