the essential
Myriam Benraad is a professor of international relations at Schiller International University, an expert on the Arab world. She answers questions from La Dépêche du Midi as for the situation in Syria following the flight of Bashar al-Assad and the rebel takeover.
How can we explain the Syrian military setback?
In my opinion, the disbandment of the Syrian army is more surprising than the armed assault of the rebels because it demonstrates the weakness of the regime. It gave the appearance of getting better since 2020 since we had a freeze in the front lines which suggested that the army was regaining control. But we can't deny that things were more serious than we thought. We can see that part of the army, out of disenchantment with the power of Bashar al-Assad and the socio-economic situation of the country, sided with the rebels.
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Who are they?
They are essentially jihadists, linked to Mohammed al-Joulani's organization. We can observe reactions of joy among these international jihadist movements. They see the Syrian victory as a scenario that they could replicate. This point is worrying, knowing that they released a number of detainees, among whom were jihadist fighters from the Islamic State.
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Where could Bashar al-Assad be?
It's difficult to say, we will have more information in the days to come. He was undoubtedly welcomed by another state. It could be Russia, it could also be a Gulf state. We had seen it with other Arab leaders who had been overthrown like Mubarak in Egypt. What is certain is that he will speak out, so we will know more.
What is the future of Syria after the fall of the regime?
It is uncertain, of course. We are promised a democratic transition, but the assault that took place with weapons is not democratic in nature. We will have to see if an election is organized by the new masters of Damascus. But, for the moment, the representation of the people, which the rebels claim to represent, remains abstract. It is above all part of a propaganda device. I am quite worried about the ideological pillars of these organizations which do not go in the direction of democratic transition.
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Does the fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime demonstrate a weakness in Russia, which did not intervene to help it?
We can explain this withdrawal by the fact that Russia is militarily engaged in Ukraine and could not provide an investment similar to that of 2015. If Moscow has ceased its operations in Syria, it is because Vladimir Putin is in the process of redefining its strategy. In my opinion, these last hours will force Russia to review its ties with the Middle East.
