After the resignation of the Prime Minister, the political calendar will accelerate. If Michel Barnier should remain in office in the coming hours, Emmanuel Macron will have to quickly find a successor.
A political agenda with many unknowns. After the overthrow of Michel Barnier and his governmentEmmanuel Macron will have to work to find a successor. The Prime Minister is expected to present his resignation to the Head of State in the coming hours, as required by the Constitution.
Therefore, two scenarios are possible: the appointment of a new Prime Minister in the coming hours or waiting for a new government.
• First hypothesis: a Prime Minister by Thursday
Tight timing
Under pressure from La France insoumise which is calling for his resignation, Emmanuel Macron hopes to move very quickly. According to a former minister who accompanied the head of state during a trip to Saudi Arabia, the president “wants to appoint a prime minister within 24 hours.”
If the president had taken 51 days to find a successor to Gabriel Attal, the atmosphere has changed. And for good reason: the schedule is particularly tight. Beyond the state budget, which must be adopted in the coming weeksthe executive will also have to move forward on a new Social Security budget which fell at the same time as Michel Barnier.
Which Prime Minister?
Several names are on the table, like the Minister of the Interior with a divisive profile Bruno Retailleau et Defense Minister Sébastien Lecornu. These two profiles have the advantage of having already been studied by the High Authority for Transparency in Public Life, making their appointment possible very quickly.
They both come from the right-wing benches and have until now maintained rather good relations with the RN – making it possible to avoid further very rapid censorship.
Another possibility, the boss of Modem François Bayrou. Problem: acquitted by the courts last February in the context of a case of fictitious employment of assistants to MEPs, the prosecution has appealed, which could lead to a new trial in the coming months.
An unchanged government team?
After the challenge of finding a new Prime Minister, we still have to find a team to support him. Here again, time is of the essence while the formation of a new government can take time. Political balance, parity, verification of declarations to the High Authority for Transparency in Public Life… The appointment of new ministers can quickly turn into a headache.
To move quickly, the new Prime Minister could be tempted to partly keep the current government castingstarting with Antoine Armand and Laurent Saint-Martin, the two figureheads of Bercy in managing to get out of the political rut.
• Second hypothesis: Macron struggles to find a new Prime Minister
Manage day-to-day affairs
Despite the president's desire to move quickly, it is possible that finding a successor to Michel Barnier will prove to be a headache. Finding a volunteer in a difficult political context, all against the backdrop of a new motion of censure in the coming months, is enough to dampen enthusiasm.
In this case, Michel Barnier, resigning Prime Minister, can continue at least for the next few days to manage current affairs.
Concretely, this covers “the daily management of the State and the continuation of current affairs” until the appointment of his successor, as constitutionalist Jean-Philippe Derosier explained in the summer. at BFTMV.com.
This period may extend over time – it is not fixed by the fundamental law. After surprise legislative elections launched by Emmanuel Macron last June, Gabriel Attal, then Prime Minister, managed current affairs for more than 2 months.
But this notion, which is not defined by the Constitution, does not allow a bill to be proposed to the Assembly as the Council of State has already explained this in a judgment. The state budget must, however, be submitted for second reading to the National Assembly by December 21 at the latest.
The challenge of the Social Security budget
Beyond the state budget which must be adopted in the coming weeks, the executive will also having to move forward on a new Social Security budget who fell at the same time as Michel Barnier.
Several avenues are therefore possible: the passing of a law special which makes it possible to urgently request Parliament to operate the various items of the social security budget or even the activation of article 47 of the Constitution which allows the social security budget to be passed by ordinance.
If constitutionalists are divided on the possibility that a resigning government could activate such cartridgesEmmanuel Macron could want to avoid several appeals to the Constitutional Council in this matter and therefore quickly appoint a new government.
A technical Prime Minister?
In a National Assembly very divided between the New Popular Front, the National Rally, the Macronie and the right, the head of state has several possibilities to find a new Prime Minister who would not be quickly censored.
He could launch new consultations as he did last summer for weeks. Problem: the political situation has barely changed in recent months, making it likely that a new round of meetings between the political parties and the Élysée will turn into an impasse.
Another possible hypothesis: name a “technical” Prime Ministereither concretely a head of government who does not belong to any political family and who has no mandate. Several socialists have already raised this hypothesis, seeing it as a possibility of avoiding censorship in the coming months.
