For his last words as Prime Minister, Michel Barnier, 73, called on each MP to “responsibility” in a “moment of truth”.
“It is not for pleasure that I have presented almost only difficult measures”, the budgetary “reality” will not “disappear by the enchantment of a motion of censure”, he declared, visibly resigned, in front of a hemicycle that had become serious again after moments of agitation.
In defense of the motion of censure, Eric Coquerel (LFI) criticized the “illegitimacy” of a government not reflecting the result of the legislative elections, and refusing to reconsider pension reform. Boris Vallaud, boss of PS deputies, accusing Michel Barnier of having “locked himself into a humiliating tête-à-tête” with RN leader Marine Le Pen.
Despite the numerous concessions obtained in the home stretch, the leader of the far-right group castigated the policy proposed by the Prime Minister: “you have only provided one answer, tax (… ) the worst policy would be not to censor such a budget”.
“Quick” replacement?
Conversely, the government’s supporters took aim at the censorious deputies.
“Who are you going to condemn? France,” attacked Gabriel Attal, boss of Macronist deputies. Laurent Wauquiez, head of the Les Républicains (LR) group, denounced a “comedy of unbearable lightness” and accused Marine Le Pen of “choosing chaos”.
If Emmanuel Macron called for “not to scare” by evoking a risk of financial crisis, Michel Barnier did not hesitate to dramatize the issue.
Expected at 6.1% of GDP in 2024, much higher than the 4.4% forecast for fall 2023, the public deficit would miss its target of 5% in the absence of a budget, and political uncertainty would weigh on the cost of debt and growth.
Despite these warnings, Michel Barnier will leave Matignon, 62 years after the only precedent under the Fifth Republic, the censorship of Georges Pompidou then Prime Minister under General de Gaulle.
Macron says he cannot “believe” in vote to censure Michel Barnier’s government
The eyes that had turned away from the Élysée will now focus on Emmanuel Macron.
The Head of State could choose a Prime Minister “quickly”, according to all his interlocutors. An unusual eagerness which aims to limit the uncertainty weighing on minds and the markets.
An appointment before the ceremony with great pomp for the reopening of Notre-Dame de Paris cathedral on Saturday is “possible”, believes a relative. But “nothing has been done,” assures the presidential entourage.
And the Matignon equation still seems as complex, with the impossibility of a dissolution and new legislative elections before seven months.
“No censorship” versus “resignation”
The fragile “common base” which supported the outgoing government could crack in the “after”. Laurent Wauquiez has already recalled that the September coalition “was only valid for Michel Barnier”.
Gabriel Attal proposes a “non-censorship” agreement with the PS to escape the supervision of the RN. “Free yourself” from rebellious France, he told the socialists in the hemicycle.
On the casting side, the names of MoDem president François Bayrou, Minister of the Armed Forces Sébastien Lecornu and LR Xavier Bertrand are circulating.
“We are taking things the other way around (…) the question of the policies carried out must be predominant,” insists Cyrielle Chatelain, head of the environmentalist deputies.
The left remains disunited on the future. The PS would like “a left-wing government open to compromise”, which the right and the center would undertake not to censor, in exchange for a renunciation of 49.3.
LFI continues to call for the resignation of Emmanuel Macron. It “is today an obstacle, and in no way a solution”, insisted Eric Coquerel.
The little music also resonates sporadically in other camps, notably among right-wing personalities.
Marine Le Pen, if she refuses to call for resignation in the name of “respect for the supreme office”, shows the door: “it is up to his reason to determine whether he can ignore the evidence of popular distrust massive that (…) I believe to be definitive”.
On Tuesday, the head of state brushed aside calls for resignation: according to him, they amounted to “political fiction”.
