The meteorological winter, which began on 1is last December, will soon see a first concrete translation. After the few autumnal days experienced this week, the weekend of December 7 and 8, 2024 will actually constitute a shift towards weather marked by cold and, possibly, snow in certain regions.
A gale in the northwest quarter Saturday morning
It will all begin this Saturday, December 7, when “a windy disturbance will impact the country, particularly the northwest”, explains Météo France.
This disturbance is linked to the passage of a depression over the British Isles. According to most major forecast models, this should bring gusts exceeding 100 km/h to the regions bordering the Channel, with some models, such as the British model, even forecasting gusts of around 120 km/h. h on the most exposed capes. Inland, the most powerful gusts should frequently reach 70 km/h.
If uncertainties about the trajectory of this depression continue to hover, the most likely scenario is that of the arrival of winds in Brittany and Cotentin during the night from Friday to Saturday, for a peak in the episode in early morning, or finally at night. The winds will then affect Haute-Normandie, Hauts-de-France and part of Île-de-France. Calm should return during the day on Sunday.
A clear cooling from Sunday
Although it will be calmer on the wind front, Sunday December 8 will however be marked by a sudden drop in temperatures, linked to the shift from an atmospheric flow coming from the southwest (therefore relatively mild) to a flow coming from the north (therefore colder) which, according to Météo France, will cause “a descent of moderately cold maritime polar air”.
In the West, this cold snap will cause minimum and maximum temperatures to drop 6 to 8°C between this Thursday, December 5 and Sunday 8. As shown in the image below, built with data from the European model, Sunday's maximums should therefore not exceed 10°C, or even a little less in the Normandy and Breton heights. The minimums will be between 3 and 6°C. Note that the mercury will be even lower in the northeast quarter and, obviously, in the massifs, where they will often be negative, including in the afternoon.
This cooling will be confirmed and accentuated in the days that follow, setting temperatures well below seasonal averages.
The coldest day of the week should be Wednesday, December 11, for which the main forecast models envisage maximums which, in the Great West, will not exceed 4°C. In the plains of the northeastern quarter, these maximums will flirt with 0°C.
Risks of snowfall, particularly in hilly areas
This drop in temperatures could bring new snow to the most exposed regions. While it is still too early to determine the extent of the phenomenon, forecast models indicate that a few centimeters could fall in the eastern plains from Monday evening. But “the snow will appear especially in the mountains and down to low altitudes, allowing all of the massifs to be covered in a thick white coat, two weeks before the Christmas holidays”explains Météo France.
Some models even envisage a few flakes, more or less melted, in the Paris region, on the Normandy heights and in the center of France. Very limited snowfall and still hypothetical but which, on this Wednesday, December 4, still belongs to the register of the imaginable.
