The latest developments
For the first time since 1962, the French Parliament has withdrawn its confidence in the Prime Minister. President Emmanuel Macron is also coming under pressure. Is the country threatened with a shutdown “à l’Américaine”? Questions and answers about the political crisis in France.
Michel Barnier shortly before the vote of no confidence: His last speech had no effect.
Imago/Lafargue Raphael/Abaca
The latest developments
- After less than three months in office, the French minority government is history. Michel Barnier, the conservative Prime Minister, did not survive the vote of no confidence on Wednesday evening (December 4th). This was preceded by a dispute over an austerity budget, which the majority of MPs strongly rejected. The verdict was correspondingly clear. 331 MPs withdrew their confidence in Barnier. 288 votes would have been enough for an absolute majority. The clear result is due to a rare solidarity between the left-wing alliance and Marine Le Pen’s right-wing nationalists. Both camps had submitted a vote of no confidence. The first vote already caused the government to collapse.
- After the fall of the government, France’s left called for the resignation of President Emmanuel Macron on Wednesday (December 4). “In order to get out of the impasse into which the president has led the country, we only have one solution: we are now calling on Emmanuel Macron to leave,” said the parliamentary group leader of the left-wing party La France Insoumise (LFI), Mathilde Panot. The leader of France’s right-wing nationalist party, Marine Le Pen, blamed Macron for the political crisis that arose with the fall of the government. “He is the person largely responsible for the current situation,” said Le Pen on TF1. “I am not calling for Emmanuel Macron to resign,” she said. But the pressure on him will increase; he will have to decide for himself whether he wants to stay in office until 2027 or call early elections.
The reason for the dissatisfaction with Michel Barnier and his cabinet was the planned austerity budget. The majority of MPs vehemently rejected this. Great resistance built up in both the left and right camps. A vote of no confidence was submitted by both sides. The first vote already led to the fall of the government with a clear result of 331 votes and an absolute majority of 288.
After losing the no-confidence vote, Barnier must immediately submit his resignation to President Emmanuel Macron. Technically, France is without a head of government. But Macron can leave Barnier’s cabinet in office until a new government is formed. Although ministers are not allowed to initiate new initiatives, they do take care of ongoing matters.
Macron needs to start looking for a successor to Barnier – which he has probably already done. The country has experience with caretaker governments. The last time there was one was after Gabriel Attal’s resignation in July. But given the high national debt and the difficult economic situation, France urgently needs a government that can act.
No. In France, where the president is a temporary monarch, parliament can only overthrow the government. The narrative that the end of Barnier also means an end to the Macron era is currently being told by many opposition politicians.
Above all, the left-wing tribune Jean-Luc Mélenchon, who wants to become president himself, has been calling on Macron to resign for weeks. Mathilde Panot, leader of the left-wing party La France Insoumise (LFI), followed suit after the fall of the government. “In order to get out of the impasse into which the president has led the country, we only have one solution: we now call on Emmanuel Macron to leave,” she said.
It is true: the head of state is under pressure, his approval ratings are in the basement, but there are no signs that he could be persuaded by Mélenchon and Le Pen to hold an early presidential election.
No. After the early elections in the summer, another parliamentary election in France is not possible until July 2025. It is completely unclear whether the future government will only take office as a stopgap until new elections.
With the fall of the government, most of its draft laws are likely to be buried. This also affects the three budget laws that Prime Minister Barnier actually wanted to get through parliament by the end of the year. A new budget draft prepared by a possible future government would have no chance of meeting the December 31 deadline.
No. A standstill in government business like in the USA has never occurred in France and is not to be expected. One possibility is that MPs introduce a special law that would allow the country to continue on the basis of the 2024 budget.
If there was no majority in favor of such a law, the president could still take emergency measures under Article 16 of the Constitution. Then normal democratic operations would be temporarily suspended. But Le Pen and the NFP have already announced that they will vote for the special law.
Neither the left nor the right parties can count on a majority capable of governing. Possible coalitions have always failed so far. A new government will hardly be able to change that. Macron had sent Barnier, who was experienced in negotiations as a former EU Brexit negotiator, into the race as prime minister in the hope that he would initiate a dialogue between the camps. It remains to be seen whether a future prime minister will demonstrate more skill.
Macron called for early parliamentary elections in early summer. This led the country into a political crisis that is now worsening. New laws and reforms are a long time coming. The austerity budget for 2025 has not yet been decided. If necessary, the current year’s budget will initially continue to apply – with the threat of tax increases for numerous citizens and the lack of planned relief.
Financial markets could lose confidence in France in view of the ongoing crisis and the unresolved budget issue, and the country’s creditworthiness could also deteriorate – which would lead to further financial burdens. Domestic and foreign companies have already been hesitant to invest in recent months. If the stalemate continues, France as a location is at risk of even greater damage.
In France, the president sets the tone for foreign policy. However, if the political crisis at home were to continue, it would also affect Macron’s performance on the international stage or in Brussels. If, in addition to Germany, there is also a political standstill in France due to an early federal election, that is bad for the EU.
Foreign Minister Sébastien Lecornu has already warned that France’s aid to Ukraine could suffer if the government falls and there is no budget agreement. France supplies Ukraine with a lot of discarded military material. But if France lacks budget funds to purchase new weapons for its own army, it cannot hand over used aircraft or vehicles to Kiev.
Governments in France are perhaps less long-lived than in Germany. Under Macron’s presidency there have already been six governments with five different prime ministers since 2017. Pressure from parliament did play a role in these government changes, but MPs did not vote out the cabinet.
In recent French history, MPs have only been successful with a vote of no confidence once: in 1962, they withdrew their confidence from Prime Minister Georges Pompidou and his government under President Charles de Gaulle. Then there was a new election and Pompidou was reinstated by de Gaulle.
With agency material.
