Deprived of a majority in the Assembly, the Prime Minister was forced to use article 49.3 to pass the Social Security budget, thus giving the opposition the opportunity to bring down the government.
He will defend his position until the end. Michel Barnier is the guest of the 8 p.m. news, on France 2 and TF1, Tuesday December 3, on the eve of a vote which should – barring any surprises – overthrow him. By triggering his first 49.3 to pass the Social Security budget, the Prime Minister seems to have sealed his fate. “It looks cooked…” Macronist deputies predicted in the corridors of the Assembly on Monday, the New Popular Front and the National Rally having confirmed that they would vote for censure on Wednesday, from 4 p.m. An overthrow of the government would be a first since 1962 and would represent a failure for the man who arrived at Matignon barely three months ago, despite having a reputation as a fine negotiator, with his experience at the European Commission during Brexit.
Monday, December 2, the Savoyard waited until 3:30 p.m. to announce in a calm voice what now seemed inevitable: the use of article 49.3 on the Social Security financing bill (PLFSS). “I have been at the end of the dialogue with all the political groups, always remaining open and listening”he assured, recalling his “method based on respect and dialogue”. But his attempts failed, including his concessions in the very final stretch.
“Listening and dialogue” : these two words already largely punctuated his general policy speech to the Assembly on October 1. A few days later, his government escaped its first motion of censure thanks to the abstention of the 124 deputies of the National Rally. Things did not start so badly between Michel Barnier and Marine Le Pen, who did not veto his nomination to Matignon. The Prime Minister even made a phone call to the president of the RN group in the Assembly, after an exit by the Minister of the Economy excluding the far-right party from the Republican arc. “We do not censor, because a single tweet from Marine Le Pen is enough to change the Prime Minister's position on the deindexation of salaries. (…) We prefer to exert pressure on a lesser evil government”RN deputy Guillaume Bigot then boasted from the podium of the Assembly.
But when discussions on the budgetary texts began at the end of October, relations deteriorated significantly, to the point that Marine Le Pen and her troops raised the possibility of censorship. Their threats redoubled after the prosecution's requisitions against Marine Le Pen, in the affair of European parliamentary assistants, for which she risks a sentence of ineligibility. “He doesn’t consider us, he completely ignores us. I find it strange, because we are the ones with our thumbs up or down”whispered an advisor to the former presidential candidate in mid-November. “I sent our counter-budget to Laurent Saint-Martin and Antoine Armand [respectivement ministres du Budget et de l’Economie]. I even printed it out for them and had it delivered during the QAG. And they never answered me, nothing”moaned MP Jean-Philippe Tanguy again on Monday.
On the Matignon side, we ensure that the National Rally is treated “like other political forces” and that the Prime Minister is “listening” pour “find a compromise”. “But he doesn’t negotiate with them”insists a deputy close to the head of government. “We must not give any guarantee to the RN, the Prime Minister is right to speak to them, to say that he is listening, but if he gives in, if he negotiates, it is over, he has become their hostage”says a Macronist senator.
To relieve the pressure, a cycle of interviews between Michel Barnier and the parliamentary groups is organized by Matignon. At the head of the largest contingent of parliamentarians, Marine Le Pen was invited first, Monday November 25. But she leaves this meeting disappointed and believes that the head of government is “Standing in his positions”. “We took all 70 measures of our counter-budget, we only kept ten, we made efforts until the end”says an RN advisor.
“The Prime Minister explained to us that this was not a negotiation.”
An RN advisorat franceinfo
One week before the vote on the Social Security budget, the tenant of Matignon however makes some concessions, without attributing them directly to the RN, which is not the only party to demand them. The Prime Minister mentions a “construction site” on the establishment of a proportional dose and cancels a tax increase on electricity. “The National Rally has just won a victory by obtaining from Michel Barnier the cancellation of the 3 billion euro tax on electricity”welcomes Jordan Bardella, on November 28, on the social network X.
But it is still insufficient for the president of the party, who assures that “other red lines remain”referring to the delisting of medicines. The Prime Minister also announces a reduction in state medical aid (AME), to which undocumented people are entitled. “Michel Barnier is a negotiator, he decides to hear some of the anger, and in the interest of the nation, it is better to have a budget and therefore he lets go on certain points”analyzes one of his relatives.
The day before the vote, Marine Le Pen calls for The Sunday Tribune the withdrawal of two measures: the delisting of certain medications and the deindexation of retirement pensions to inflation. Otherwise, she threatens once again, Michel Barnier will be censored. In the very final stretch, the former European commissioner ends up changing his line. Monday morning, he telephoned Marine Le Pen to tell her that he was ready to reconsider the delisting of medicines. Better, Matignon announces this gesture in a press release quoting Marine Le Pen by name. The latter replies that she is going to consult Jordan Bardella, but when she calls him back, it is to tell him that the deindexation of retirement pensions remains a red line. Michel Barnier will no longer move and decides a few hours later to initiate 49.3 on the Social Security budget.
“She came out with requests one after the other… You had to say stop at one point, otherwise it was like a circus.”
A MoDem deputyat franceinfo
In the common base, many people attribute Michel Barnier's failure to Marine Le Pen's judicial agenda. “He wanted to see if she was sincere, he needed to be sure that she threatened censorship in his legal interest”assures a close friend of the Prime Minister. “She made the decision to press the 'mess up the country' button to have an early presidential election and not risk waiting to be convicted and ineligible.”
At the RN, this blockage is attributed to Michel Barnier, who would not have taken their demands seriously. “He let himself be intoxicated by the speeches of his entourage, of the Parisian microcosm, and he thought that we would not vote for censorship. But neither blackmail nor threats will prevent us from voting for it”says Philippe Ballard. Many Macronists did not believe in this perspective. “She will censor later, but she will not take the risk of plunging the country into chaos just before Christmas”wanted to believe a Macronist parliamentarian.
Both camps continue to blame each other for this fiasco. On Tuesday, the entourage of the head of government took care to inform the press that “in recent weeks, Marine Le Pen’s bodyguards have refused a meeting at Matignon three times”judging “surprising to see the RN say that they were received too late”. “False and extremely false”replies the National Rally.
Arriving at the head of the government crowned with his reputation as a former Brexit negotiator, Michel Barnier failed to make his method work. “Faced with this Assembly, there was no other equation. He followed his part and he did well”argues a right-wing MP, who nevertheless believes that it could have been wise to use 49.3 earlier, before the far-right party toughened its tone too much, in particular after the requisitions in the trial of parliamentary assistants of the FN. For some Macronists, the head of government went too far during these negotiations.
“Michel Barnier lost and he did a lot of things I wouldn’t have done.”
An executive from the Macronist group in the Assemblyat franceinfo
“We had to maintain consistency, with regard to the deficit, and with regard to the values of the common basecontinues this deputy, bitter. The press release on medicines is good news for the French, but it bothered us that he attributed it to the RN.”
“It seems damaged to me. We should not have held negotiations with the RN in broad daylight: we do not negotiate with a non-republican party”deplores another deputy from Ensemble pour la République. “And Michel Barnier has his share of responsibility”continues this elected official, believing that the head of government does not have enough “animated” its common base.
“How could he give in without having the assurance that she was not going to abstain from censorship? I don’t understand.”
A Macronist parliamentarianat franceinfo
Michel Barnier's other tactic – betting on the socialists not to vote for censure – also seems to have failed. “Not a single one of our voters would understand that we are saving this government which is negotiating with the RNasserts PS deputy Emmanuel Grégoire. He led an exclusive negotiation with the RN and he trapped himself.”
“It is a political fault and a moral fault, because many deputies from its base were elected to stand up to the RN.”
Emmanuel Grégoire, socialist deputyat franceinfo
The lying poker game which has lasted for several weeks between the Prime Minister and the National Rally is therefore coming to an end. Or almost? Many elected officials from the common base hope to see him stay in Matignon, even in the event of censorship. Emmanuel Macron could in fact rename it immediately, in order to have the budgets for 2025 adopted without too much delay. “He is best placed to defend these texts, he knows them. And then he has acquired the image of a wise man, calm, without arrogance”praises an elected Republican. “Before, when you failed, you were a loser. But people won't be able to blame him for failing, they will be grateful to him for trying.”
