Will there be a budget at Christmas? The hypothesis now seems improbable. This Monday afternoon, at the National Assembly, Prime Minister Michel Barnier announced the use of article 49-3 to adopt the Social Security budget. In the process, the president of the La France insoumise (LFI) group, Mathilde Panot, announced that a motion of censure would be tabled by the left. Identical approach at the other end of the political spectrum where the president of the National Rally group at the Palais Bourbon, Marine Le Pen, quickly indicated: “ We are tabling a motion of censure and we will vote to censure the government. »
In this context, if Michel Barnier's government were to fall this week, the finance bill (PLF) for 2025 could not be adopted. And according to the executive, this scenario is not without risk for household taxation. On Sunday, Budget Minister Laurent Saint-Martin warned in The Parisian : « If we renew the 2024 budget, we will automatically bring 380,000 additional French households into income tax, because the scale will not have kept up with inflation and 17 million households will also pay more. »
Because, technically, without a finance law, exit article 2 of the text (in its initial version), which provides for the indexation of “income brackets of the income tax (IR) scale, as well as the thresholds and limits associated with it on the forecast change in the consumer price index excluding tobacco for 2024 compared to 2023 , or 2%. » A measure taken almost every year to protect taxpayers from price increases.
Income tax: these very costly tax loopholes for the State
Due to lack of time, the new government (or the resigned government of Michel Barnier) will above all be forced to request article 47-4, paragraph 4 of the Constitution by the end of the year to request “urgently to Parliament the authorization to collect taxes”. This was confirmed by the First President of the Court of Auditors, Pierre Moscovici, in an interview this weekend at La Tribune Sunday. “Those who would be ready to censor the government have already said they would pass such a law”wanted to reassure the former tenant of Bercy.
A retroactive finance law
But in this case, “this is the income tax scale applied to 2023 income which will still apply to 2024 income”confirms Alexandre Maitrot de la Motte, professor of public law at Paris-Est Créteil University. “ However, nothing prevents a finance law from being passed later in the year with retroactive effect from January 1 to correct the scale.specifies the expert.
Pierre Moscovici: “In the event of censorship, our credit would be damaged”
“It is therefore false to say that rejecting the budget at this stage amounts to a tax increase! »reacts to The Tribunethe socialist deputy and quaestor of the National Assembly Christine Pirès Beaune who is annoyed by “elements of language” distilled by Bercy in the press this weekend.
Ideally, according to Alexandre Maitrot de la Motte, a finance law should be passed before the declaration period next spring, so as to be able to index the income tax scale to inflation as planned. But if the political crisis were to last, Bercy could still reimburse tax households, penalized by the non-revaluation on inflation, a posteriori. “It’s completely recoverable, continues the professor of public law, with, for example, a tax credit sbased on the model of what had been put in place on 2018 income (recovery modernization tax credit) for the transition to withholding tax in January 2019.
