The war in Ukraine finds itself in a volatile period. Before Donald Trump took office on January 20, a missile duel broke out. For a week, kyiv has been able to strike Russian territory with American ATACMS and British Storm Shadows. France authorized the use of Scalp-EG against targets in Russia. A system which imposes the direct participation of the three countries in carrying out the bombings.
The Russian Defense Ministry said on Monday, November 25, that it had shot down eight ballistic missiles coming from Ukraine, American-made aerial bombs and drones. The Ukrainian cities of Kharkiv and Odessa suffered significant missile attacks.
A new American nuclear doctrine
On the front, these bombings did not have a considerable impact. “No game changerunderlines a soldier. The objective seems more political. » On the Russian side, the firing of an intermediate, medium-range ballistic missile on Dnipro is a message intended for Westerners. Before the strike, Moscow had warned Washington through nuclear risk reduction channels. The same day Vladimir Putin made a point of explaining “as we have previously emphasized on numerous occasions, the regional conflict provoked by the West in Ukraine has taken on a global dimension”. Faced with this escalation, the Russian president warned of possible responses: “We consider ourselves within our rights to use our weapons against the military installations of countries that authorize the use of their weapons against our installations”.
Could we be heading towards a NATO-Russia war? The Atlantic Alliance has decided to hold a meeting this Tuesday in the face of the security situation taken by the Ukrainian conflict. The ballistic missile launched by Russia and its new nuclear doctrine are worrying and will be debated. But the response has already come from Washington. Days before Vladimir Putin signed the executive order, the United States Department of Defense presented an updated report on nuclear weapons strategy, known as Report 491, to Congress on November 15.
Several new provisions appear: simultaneous deterrence of several nuclear adversaries; integration of non-nuclear capabilities to support nuclear deterrence; escalation management in response to limited nuclear attacks or highly conventional non-nuclear attacks; increased consultations with allies and partners to strengthen collective security.
A concern around the Ukrainian workforce
Negotiations seem inevitable. The Atlantic Alliance is also aware of this. Despite military aid, Ukraine has a real manpower problem. With a lack of volunteers and recruits from the last wave of mobilization, several army officials are worried about the months to come to hold the entire front. Spring could prove particularly difficult.
In the meantime, Donald Trump's team will begin working with outgoing President Joe Biden's administration to reach a « arrangement » between Ukraine and Russia, expressing concern about “climbing” current situation, said Mike Waltz, the future White House security adviser, on Sunday. For his return, the Republican president promised a radically different approach to foreign policy than that of Joe Biden, particularly on Ukraine, where he pledged to end the war in one day. Before arriving at the negotiating table, kyiv and Moscow are trying to have as many assets as possible in their possession.
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