the essential
While the United States has authorized Ukraine to use long-range missiles to defend itself, Vladimir Putin is once again raising the specter of resorting to nuclear weapons. The Russian president signed a decree allowing Moscow to expand the possibilities of using nuclear weapons. Nicolas Tenzer, geopolitical scientist and teacher at Sciences Po, discusses the prospects of such an announcement.
La Dépêche du Midi: Vladimir Putin announced that he was expanding the possibilities of using nuclear weapons. Should we be worried about this decision?
Nicolas Tenzer: No, absolutely not. This is a classic strategy, which had already been observed by Vladimir Putin, well before the war in Ukraine. Putin's nuclear doctrine is above all an instrument of bluff which aims to influence a certain number of Western leaders, notably American and German. Of course, you have to monitor this closely: there is no zero risk.
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But you don't necessarily have to pay much attention to it. Let us not forget that this statement comes at a time when the United States has given the green light for the use of long-range missiles in Ukraine: we have munitions there which, as we know, have been deployed in limited numbers and especially which will not allow kyiv to achieve all of its objectives.
So we can instead speak of “rhetorical escalation”?
A little over a year ago, Dmitri Medvedev, former president of Russia, already announced the arrival of the “knights of the apocalypse” on the front. In Moscow, Patriarch Cyril designated Russia's adversaries as antichrists. The rhetorical escalation has been constant since February 24, 2022.
In itself, if Russia is to use nuclear technology, what are we talking about?
You should know that today, the smallest tactical bombs that use nuclear technology are 10 to 15 times the power of Hiroshima or Nagasaki. We are not talking about “small clean bombs”, which will dig a small crater and kill several hundred soldiers. These are nuclear bombs, with far-reaching effects. We would have much more significant radiation effects than what we experienced with Chernobyl, which could spread to Poland, Lithuania, and perhaps even to France.
What does international law say about the use of such weapons?
He purely and simply condemns the use of nuclear weapons. But today, we are no longer in the realm of what international law allows or not with what Putin is doing. You also have international treaties which limit armaments, and which are today more or less respected…
So if not the law, what would prevent Putin from taking the plunge?
If Russia were to use nuclear weapons, it would make it a “pariah state”, at least more than it is today. It is obvious, for example, that China would disapprove of this. This would be a real taboo that would be overcome: we have always considered nuclear weapons as a deterrent tool. If it comes to redefine this concept, Russia would attract the wrath of its allies.
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On the legal side, internally, we are not sure that on the Russian side, the Minister of Defense and the Chief of Staff – who must also give their authorization – will give the green light for the use of nuclear weapons.
What do we know today about Russia's nuclear arsenal?
The latest count shows 4,000 to 5,000 nuclear warheads in total in Russia. The United States has just as many. France has 300. But that doesn’t mean anything in itself. This was a reasoning supported by General de Gaulle, advocating the response of the weakest to the strongest. The weak also has absolutely monstrous and terrible destructive capabilities in the territory it would attack.
Concretely, if they are not nuclear, what are the risks of escalation today in Ukraine?
There are fears of the continued arrival of additional troops from foreign countries, particularly North Korea. There are now 12,000 North Korean soldiers in Ukraine. We have information which suggests that this number could rise to 100,000 soldiers in the coming weeks. In this country of 26 million inhabitants, there are 1.2 million soldiers and 9 million reservists… We would be in a real form of escalation. The conflict would move into another dimension.
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Another form of escalation would consist of Russia using chemical weapons on a massive scale. Reports show that such weapons have been used on a limited basis so far. Joe Biden had mentioned this scenario, indicating that the United States would not remain passive if the use of such weapons by Russia was proven.
