Very turbulent, and notably marked by a first windy episode this Tuesday, the weather for the week of November 18 could end with the passage of a very strong gale over France. According to the latest forecasts, a fairly marked depression should indeed affect the northwest quarter of the country during the day of Saturday, November 23.
First strong gusts from Saturday morning
At this time frame, which is still relatively distant, the details of the phenomenon are difficult to determine with precision. However, for several days, all the major forecast models have agreed that the first notable winds will affect the Great West on Saturday early in the morning. After sweeping Brittany and Normandy, this knot of wind will evacuate through Hauts-de-France. It will also affect Pays de la Loire and Île-de-France, but to a lesser extent.
This trajectory is shown in the animation below, which presents the evolution of the winds in Europe on Saturday and Sunday according to the European forecast model.
Although they are relatively consistent on the onset of the phenomenon, the models are not, however, on its end date, some considering it from the beginning of Sunday morning, others forecasting strong winds until Sunday , late in the afternoon.
Winds over 110 km/h
The winds brought by this depression will be relatively powerful, in particular because of the windy currents at altitude, which will be particularly strong that day and will reinforce the depression located on the surface.
The main models thus agree to say that the most powerful gusts should reach 110 km/h on the coasts, or locally a little more on the most exposed capes, notably in Finistère and Cotentin. Inland, gusts will often exceed 70 km/h, or even a little more along the Channel coast.
Note that in recent days, certain models (notably the British and German models) envisaged even more sustained gusts, of the order of 120 to 130 km/h. The evolution of the phenomenon over the coming days could lead to a return to such forecasts, symptomatic of a storm.