This Thursday, November 21, the conditions required to see snow fall will be met in a large part of France. The map below, taken from the European forecast model, shows that the temperatures recorded during the afternoon could remain negative, after having often been so during the morning.
At the same time, a major rain disturbance will cross France. The probable path of this disturbance is transcribed in the animation below, constructed with data from the French Arpege model, one of the two models operated by Météo France.
An episode of snow with still unclear contours
The cocktail allowing the formation and fall of snow is therefore, in theory, present. The various forecast models are obviously not wrong and therefore estimate that snow should fall on Thursday, including in the plains. Météo France indicates for its part that there is a 70% chance that a dangerous phenomenon linked to snow will occur on Thursday.
But the contours of this snowy episode are at this time difficult to define with precision. Firstly because snow formation is a fragile process, which requires the temperature to be negative over the entire air column above a given sector. Then because the trajectory of the depression which is supposed to bring this snow is still uncertain. Brief, “the location and intensity of snowfall may still change”summarizes Météo Cities.
Nevertheless, “the regions going from Lower Normandy, to the Pays de la Loire, via the Center and Burgundy to Franche-Comté currently seem to be the most targeted”explains Météo France in its latest forecast bulletin for dangerous phenomena. This is also what the image below suggests. Taken from European model forecasts, it shows that several centimeters of snow could be recorded Thursday mid-afternoon.
Some models, notably the American and German models, estimate this Tuesday that the disturbance will pass a little further south. In such a case, the epicenter of the snowy episode will shift towards Brittany, the Nantes region and Auvergne.
“Friday, in a context of possibly still snowy ground combined with cool temperatures, the risk of refreezing in the northern half is quite significant”concludes Météo France. A mild spell is then planned for the weekend. The weather forecast will however remain choppy as a gale is expected to sweep across the north-west of France during the day on Thursday.
